Copper
Dr. Copper hasn’t been in a good mood since May, when a speculative squeeze drove it to $5 followed by a sharp turn lower. It’s currently flirting with $4 as the market frets about a global growth slowdown.
Given the price action in bonds, JPY and oil, I think a further slowdown is a material risk. Some of that is priced in but I don’t think we’re there yet. Perhaps if the Fed and other central banks get aggressive on rate cuts, the market can start to feel better but the real linchpin for copper is China, which is 50% of demand.
The opportunity in copper may not knock until China starts to stimulate. If not, 2025 could be a tough year, with prices stuck with a $3-handle. The upshot from that is that it will further squeeze the investment pipeline. After 2025, there isn’t any significant new supply coming while demand will get a secular lift from investments in green energy and a much-needed investment in the grid.
So the best trade here (as usual) is probably the patient one. Given the recessionary winds, we may get a chance to buy copper or copper miners at somewhere close to $3.50.
