It was a great year for the bulls as every dip was bought. It was a tougher scenario globally but the US market was a big winner.
On the day:
- S&P 500 -0.4%
- Nasdaq -0.9%
- DJIA -0.1%
- Russell 2000 +0.1%
- Toronto TSX Comp +0.4%
On the month:
- S&P 500 -2.5%
- Nasdaq +0.5%
- DJIA +0.5%
- Russell 2000 -8.4%
- Toronto TSX Comp -3.6%
The Russell 2000 was a big post-election Trump trade that soured quickly on tariff worries.
On the year:
- S&P 500 +23.3%
- Nasdaq +26.8%
- DJIA +12.9%
- Russell 2000 10.0%
- Toronto TSX Comp +18.0%
The two-year return of the S&P 500 is the best since 1997-98.
The underperformance of the Russell 2000 is notable and I think there needs to be some real broadening to keep the bull market going in 2025. The good news is that the weekly Russell 2000 chart is showing a series of higher lows. If Trump cools it on the tariff talk and Congress extends the Trump tax cut (or improves it) then it could be the trade of 2025.
Russell 2000 weekly
Meanwhile, here are annual returns for the Nasdaq for the past 30 years:
| Year | Annual Return |
|---|---|
| 2024 | +26.8% |
| 2023 | +43.42% |
| 2022 | −33.10% |
| 2021 | +21.39% |
| 2020 | +43.64% |
| 2019 | +35.23% |
| 2018 | −3.88% |
| 2017 | +28.24% |
| 2016 | +7.50% |
| 2015 | +5.73% |
| 2014 | +13.40% |
| 2013 | +38.32% |
| 2012 | +15.91% |
| 2011 | −1.80% |
| 2010 | +16.91% |
| 2009 | +43.89% |
| 2008 | −40.54% |
| 2007 | +9.81% |
| 2006 | +9.52% |
| 2005 | +1.37% |
| 2004 | +8.59% |
| 2003 | +50.01% |
| 2002 | −31.53% |
| 2001 | −21.05% |
| 2000 | −39.29% |
| 1999 | +85.59% |
| 1998 | +39.63% |
| 1997 | +21.64% |
| 1996 | +22.71% |
| 1995 | +39.92% |
As for the Nasdaq, the big question for 2025 is whether it’s a redux of 1998 or a redux of 2000. The impressive performance of China’s DeepSeek raises some questions about the need for semi-conductors.
