Morgan Stanley economists no longer expect a Fed cut in March, according to the WSJ. They now expect only one rate cut this year, in June.
“Imposing tariffs more quickly than we assumed would likely mean disinflation halts at a higher pace of inflation, blocking any near-term path to cuts,” they write.
The Fed funds futures market is pricing in 49.5 bps in easing in the US this year.
For me, the important thing about the Fed is that there is a put. When you get soft economic data — like today’s JOLTS number — the stock market rallies because it gives the Fed the option to cut more.
