The Reserve Bank of Australia meet on February 17 and 18. The Statement is expected at 2.30pm local time on the 18th:
Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock will hold her press conference an hour later.
Via Reuters poll:
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Reuters poll indicates the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will cut the cash rate to 4.10% on February 18, with 40 of 43 economists predicting a 25 basis point (bps) reduction.
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Median forecasts project an additional 75 bps of cuts this year, lowering the rate to 3.60% by end-2025.
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Easing inflation, which fell to 2.4% (within the RBA’s target), and slowing economic growth support the decision to cut rates.
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Despite moderating inflation, a strong labour market and wage growth reduce the urgency for aggressive cuts.
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Major banks (ANZ, CBA, NAB, Westpac) expect a 25 bps cut on February 18 and between 50-100 bps in total cuts for 2025.
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Over 75% of economists foresee another 25 bps cut in Q2, bringing rates to 3.85%.
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The cash rate is projected to reach 3.60% by September, followed by a pause through early 2026.
Unlike other developed economies, apart from Japan of course, the RBA has held rates steady. The first cut is expected next week. I don’t think the RBA would be brave enough to not cut in the face of such overwhelming expectations.
