The Bank of Canada Governor holds a press conference and takes questions from reporters along with Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers.
Highlights:
- We are navigating carefully
- The Canadian economy started the year in a good place
- In March, we said we would be less-forward looking
- Much has happened since March but the situation is no less clear
- We’re going to do as much as we can to support to the Canadian economy while maintaining our focus on price stability
- My comment about ‘acting decisively’ isn’t a code word
- Says he’s heading to IMF meetings soon and expects some clarity there
- Everyone is feeling the ‘erratic, unpredictable course of US trade policy’
- Anyone using these forecasts needs to consider a range of possible outcomes
- We did consider cutting rates
- Cites ‘not much clarity’ on US tariffs as a reason to holding rates, which also assessing effects of tariffs and uncertainty
He repeated the ‘navigating carefully’ line twice after referring to his notes. That’s clearly a talking point but it’s not clear what he’s saying. I think it implied that rate cuts were still in play but they want to try and get some clarity on tariffs. I think it’s a mistake because the path of growth is undoubtedly down and they could quickly fall behind the curve.
Rogers:
- We’re hoping for some clarity
- We haven’t seen dysfunction in the financial markets
- We’ve seen a big drop in Toronto housing activity
- Housing has had an outsized impact on our economy for awhile
- There was a real clear consensus on a hold being the right decision at this point
Overall, messaging from this MPR has been a mess. Macklem is saying they’re waiting for clarity but also that even if they get clarity on tariffs, they will still be uncertain — but they don’t want to move until they have certainty.
