Market Summary
Markets tread cautiously ahead of the Fed decision: S&P 500 hovered near record levels while the Nasdaq led gains on AI strength and the Dow lagged. Treasury yields have risen, boosting dollar strength and pressuring rate‑sensitive sectors; traders are pricing a likely quarter‑point cut but are focused on Fed tone and the dot plot for 2026 guidance.
The U.S. move to ease restrictions on Nvidia’s H200 chips for China and market reaction dominate tech and trade flows. Coverage links the political greenlight to immediate stock moves and regulatory steps as exporters and chipmakers reassess China exposure.
Figure of the Day
$1.0T – China’s annual trade surplus, the first time the country’s surplus has topped one trillion dollars.
Paramount Skydance launched an aggressive, all-cash hostile bid for Warner Bros., directly challenging Netflix and forcing a shareholder battle. The move has triggered frantic financing talk and political attention, turning a media auction into a multi-front corporate fight.
President Trump has publicly inserted himself into the Netflix–Warner Bros. tussle and flagged antitrust concerns, signalling political scrutiny of the deal. His comments add a regulatory wildcard for both bidders and deal reviewers.
Bullish
GreenTech posts record Q4 revenue, raises full‑year guidance
Clean‑energy firm GreenTech reported record Q4 sales and upgraded fiscal guidance, citing stronger-than-expected turbine orders and new hyperscaler data‑center contracts that lift its outlook.
IBM struck a major deal to buy Confluent, a data‑streaming platform, to bolster its AI and hybrid‑cloud offerings. The acquisition reshapes the enterprise data stack and drew immediate market and competitive reaction.
Markets are braced for a Fed decision this week amid strong expectations of another rate cut and a focus on Fed signals rather than the headline move. Investors are trading around rate‑cut odds, pushing volatility in equities and bond markets.
Bearish
Retail chain MainStreet files for bankruptcy after tariff squeeze
Regional retailer MainStreet has filed for Chapter 11 after tariffs and supply‑chain costs eroded margins and forced a liquidity crunch, imperiling thousands of jobs and creditors.
Bond markets are repricing as traders split between hopes for Fed easing and sticky inflation risks, lifting Treasury yields. Investors are clustering bets around a mild easing cycle even as front‑end and long‑end dynamics diverge.
China’s external surplus surged to an unprecedented level as exports rebounded in November, underscoring Beijing’s ability to find new markets despite U.S. tariffs. The data shifts global trade narratives and raises fresh scrutiny of currency and industrial policy.
Regulatory Impact
White House to sign an executive order pre‑empting state AI rules and the Commerce Department is set to allow exports of Nvidia H200 chips to China — a major shift in both tech trade and federal‑state regulatory turf.
A severe earthquake off northern Japan generated tsunami alerts and local damage, prompting emergency response and port closures. Authorities warned of additional quakes and are assessing infrastructure and supply‑chain impacts.
The Supreme Court signaled it may broaden presidential authority to fire independent‑agency officials, a potential overhaul of modern administrative law. The decisions could shift regulatory independence and reshape agency governance across sectors.
Quote
Inflation is there and maybe not going down.
— Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan Chase CEO
Washington is pressing Kyiv to consider a U.S.‑backed peace framework while European allies publicly back President Zelensky. The diplomatic tug‑of‑war raises stakes for ongoing negotiations and security guarantees.
New filings and reporting show Jared Kushner and Gulf sovereign money involved in financing Paramount’s hostile bid, raising questions about deal backing. The finance thread complicates the corporate fight and invites political scrutiny.
Apple is undergoing heavy executive turnover just as rivals race on AI, though chip chief Johny Srouji has told staff he plans to stay. The leadership churn raises questions about product roadmaps and talent stability ahead of 2026 launches.
Boeing closed its acquisition of Spirit AeroSystems, buying a key supplier to exert greater control over its 737 Max fuselage production. The deal marks a major supply‑chain consolidation in aerospace manufacturing.
Traditional finance continues to integrate crypto: BlackRock filed for a staked‑Ethereum ETF while Binance accelerates moves to Abu Dhabi for licensing. The developments underscore growing institutionalisation and regulatory realignment in crypto markets.
Waymo is scaling robotaxi operations even as safety recalls hit a subset of vehicles over school‑bus detection. The juxtaposition highlights operational growing pains amid rapid autonomy expansion.
Broadcom continues to climb as AI demand drives chip valuations, while peers face competitive worries. Market leadership in custom AI silicon is prompting rotation within semiconductors and renewed analyst attention.
The White House is preparing a $12 billion package to aid farmers hit by trade disruptions, a move to blunt tariff fallout and political pressure. Markets are parsing which agricultural names will benefit from one‑time payments versus longer‑term trade shifts.
Sellers are increasingly withdrawing homes from the market as pricing gaps persist, pushing delistings to unusually high levels. The trend signals softening inventory dynamics and raises questions for 2026 housing outlooks.
