Chart of the Week: National Truckload Index (Linehaul Only) – USA SONAR: NTIL.USA
Truckload spot rates excluding the estimated cost of fuel (NTIL) jumped 8% over the two-week period from November 19 to December 4. This increase was slightly sharper than in the previous two years, which saw slower but similarly sized moves around the Thanksgiving holiday. Sharp, sudden rate spikes have been a defining feature of the truckload market this year. While the market was expected to transition into a more balanced phase in 2025, it has instead remained stuck in a kind of purgatory, offering only brief flashes of relief for many transportation providers. What does this signal imply for the year ahead?
Spot rates are not a perfect measure of the truckload market, but they are highly effective at reflecting how carriers perceive the value of their services. For most of the past three years, carriers have had few reasons to feel more valuable, as capacity has consistently exceeded what the market could absorb.
According to Carrier Details’ analysis of FMCSA data, more than 100,000 new motor carrier of property authorities were issued in 2021–2022. Once demand returned to more “normal” levels, the market found itself with a significant capacity glut — one that has been slowly bleeding off since early 2023, decreasing by roughly 50,000 authorities.
Recent increases in regulatory pressure around English Language Proficiency (ELP) and non-domiciled CDL issuances have had some impact, but quantifying that impact has been difficult. The most visible effect occurred in October, when a Serbian news article reportedly prompted many eastern European operators — both compliant and noncompliant — to temporarily stop driving, causing a brief surge in spot rates. Rates had mostly normalized by mid-November.
The exit of capacity has also been obscured by weakening demand. Truckload tender volumes — shippers’ electronic requests for capacity — have averaged 5–10% lower year over year since mid-February, according to the newly released SONAR Truckload Volume Index (STVI). The unexpected drop in demand appears to be the primary reason the market’s transition out of a prolonged freight recession has stalled. Surprisingly, however, it has not made conditions materially worse.
At this time last year, the NTIL showed a more gradual, sustained upward trend beginning in late October and gaining momentum in early November — earlier than typical seasonality would suggest. Many interpreted this as a sign of a more durable market recovery outside normal seasonal pressure.
