Market Summary
Markets are jittery ahead of the Fed decision: S&P 500 and Dow trade slightly lower while the Nasdaq clings to tech gains. Volatility is up as Treasury yields extend a recent rise, tech and AI names swing on chip-export news and the Warner Bros. takeover drama; investors are pricing both policy risk and an uneven growth outlook.
Paramount Skydance launched a hostile all-cash takeover bid for Warner Bros. Discovery backed by Gulf and private capital. The move escalates a bidding war that threatens Netflix’s planned acquisition and draws political scrutiny over foreign financing.
Figure of the Day
$1 trillion – China’s record annual trade surplus, the first time the country has topped $1tn.
The White House cleared Nvidia H200 chip exports to China with new limits, prompting market ripples across US chipmakers. Officials framed the move as conditional access for ‘approved customers’, shifting the strategic calculus for AI competition.
Markets are braced for a key Federal Reserve decision this week, with investors split on the near-term path of policy. Rising Treasury yields underscore bond-market anxiety that a rate cut may be followed by higher longer-term borrowing costs.
Bullish
Glean hits $200m ARR… Growth fuels enterprise AI momentum
Glean vaulted to $200m ARR in months, underscoring robust enterprise demand for AI search and boosting confidence in SaaS profitability ahead of further IPO and M&A interest.
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IBM agreed to acquire Confluent in a multibillion-dollar deal to boost its real-time data and AI capabilities, sending shockwaves through enterprise software markets. Confluent shares surged on the takeover news as investors priced strategic value.
China’s exports surge has pushed the country’s annual trade surplus past $1 trillion for the first time, highlighting export strength but exposing dependence on external demand. The record surplus is reshaping global trade tensions and regional policy responses.
Bearish
Boaz Weinstein’s flagship fund plunges amid buoyant markets
Saba Capital’s $2bn flagship logged a 6.5% loss this year, spotlighting strains in credit strategies even as broader markets rally — a worrying sign for hedge funds tied to crowded trades.
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The Supreme Court heard arguments that could widen presidential authority to fire independent-agency officials, a decision with major regulatory consequences. Early signals from justices suggest a possible shift toward expanded executive control.
Ukraine and Russia reported heavy overnight drone exchanges, underlining renewed escalation in the conflict. Both Kyiv and Moscow claim significant strike and defense tallies, raising risks for broader regional instability.
Regulatory Impact
Commerce signals limited approval to export Nvidia H200 chips to China (with a U.S. surcharge); CFTC launches a pilot allowing BTC/ETH/USDC as derivatives collateral; federal court vacated Trump’s offshore wind permitting memo, reopening wind project approvals.
A magnitude 7.5 earthquake struck northern Japan, triggering tsunami alerts and injuring scores of people. Authorities later lifted warnings as the immediate danger eased and assessments of damage began.
US regulators are moving to integrate crypto into mainstream finance: the CFTC launched a pilot allowing bitcoin, ether and USDC as collateral, while Circle secured an ADGM licence to expand USDC use in the Middle East. The steps mark policy shifts toward crypto adoption.
Quote
Inflation is there and maybe not going down.
— Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan CEO
AI firms debate the next phase of development: Anthropic called for fewer, more capable agents focused on reusable skills, while OpenAI signals an internal shift — planning to end ‘code red’ after a major model release. The debate shapes investment and product roadmaps.
Major central banks are navigating conflicting signals: the RBA held rates and warned of inflation risks, while the Bank of England said inflation should return to target soon. Policymakers remain split on timing and pace of future easing.
BHP moved to monetize power infrastructure in Western Australia by selling a near-half stake to BlackRock’s GIP, a strategic sale to fund priorities. The deal signals private infrastructure capital’s appetite for critical mining-linked assets.
Autonomous ride services moved toward commercialization: Zoox plans paid robotaxi rides in 2026 while Waymo reported surging weekly trip counts as it scales. The shift accelerates competition in the emerging mobility market.
A federal judge invalidated President Trump’s sweeping memo that curtailed offshore wind permitting, clearing the way for resumed project approvals and a regulatory reset for U.S. wind development. The ruling is a major legal setback for the administration’s energy policy.
Boeing completed its acquisition of Spirit AeroSystems, bringing a major 737 Max supplier into the fold to secure its supply chain. The deal is aimed at improving production integration and reducing supplier risk.
Ford and Renault agreed to a strategic tie-up to build affordable electric cars in Europe, sharing plants and technology to fight low-cost Chinese entrants. The partnership aims to lower production costs and accelerate EV availability.
PepsiCo struck a deal with activist Elliott to cut costs and lower consumer prices, promising restructuring across its product range. The pact aims to shield volumes and fend off further shareholder pressure without board seat changes.
OpenAI expanded enterprise reach with a Deutsche Telekom partnership, while Google Cloud outlined a plan to tackle AI’s enormous energy demands. Together the moves underline the industry’s push to scale AI responsibly amid power constraints.
