Market Summary
Markets traded cautiously ahead of the Fed, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq near flat and the Dow weighed by bank weakness. Volatility rose as investors priced an imminent rate cut and digested Nvidia’s China approval; tech and commodities led moves, silver surged and financials sold off on higher expense guidance.
Washington cleared a path for Nvidia to sell advanced H200 AI chips to approved Chinese buyers while US authorities clamp down on illicit exports. The pair of stories track policy change and an immediate law‑enforcement response to smuggling networks exploiting the high‑value market.
Figure of the Day
25% – Reported U.S. revenue share tied to Nvidia H200 chip sales to China.
Political blowback and national‑security doubts follow the White House move on Nvidia chips. Lawmakers and prominent critics pressed the administration on risks and whether the deal compromises US tech edge.
The Federal Reserve is tilting toward a rate cut amid internal divisions and market expectations. Coverage captures policymakers’ split views and market positioning ahead of a likely easing move.
Bullish
Anthropic nears $10B annualized revenue — AI commercialisation pays off
Anthropic’s rapid commercial growth pushed annualized revenue toward $10 billion, highlighting enterprise demand for large‑language model services and boosting investor confidence in AI monetization.
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Markets held a cautious tone as traders awaited the Fed decision, with futures muted and key indexes wobbling. Investors positioned ahead of guidance from the central bank and its implications for 2026.
SpaceX is lining up an enormous IPO planned for 2026 that would dwarf most listings, fueling debate over valuation and timing. Multiple reports point to a blockbuster raise that could reshape the IPO calendar.
Bearish
First Brands liquidation looms as DIP loan collapses
First Brands faces a potential liquidation after a debtor‑in‑possession loan collapsed, signaling a dramatic unwind for a previously leveraged consumer group and raising losses for creditors.
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Paramount’s hostile bid has shaken up the takeover fight for Warner Bros., complicating Netflix’s earlier deal and forcing shareholders to reassess. The takeover drama threatens long legal and regulatory battles and keeps media assets in flux.
JPMorgan struck a nerve on Wall Street after the bank flagged much higher 2026 expenses, denting its shares and dragging the Dow. Market attention centers on cost pressures in consumer units and bank margins.
Regulatory Impact
Key shifts: White House cleared limited H200 exports to China with a U.S. revenue cut; OCC signaled banks can transact in crypto assets; Australia enacted an under‑16 social media ban — regulators and markets are recalibrating fast.
Silver surged to record highs on a global supply squeeze, prompting investor and industrial interest. The metal’s jump is driving miner gains and portfolio repositioning into precious metals.
Big tech is ramping investment in India while AI firms hire commercial leaders to monetize growth. These moves underscore a pivot to enterprise AI and cloud infrastructure across the sector.
Quote
“You ain’t seen nothing yet.”
— Paul Atkins, SEC Chair
China’s consumer inflation is accelerating even as producer prices slide, complicating Beijing’s policy trade‑offs. Analysts watch the data for signals on stimulus and trade dynamics ahead of leadership meetings.
Beijing has resumed buying US soybeans but still falls short of prior trade commitments, forcing US negotiators to adjust timelines. The trade cadence remains a touchpoint in broader US‑China commerce ties.
Tensions over transatlantic security and political rhetoric widened as the Pope and European leaders pushed back on US policy pronouncements. The exchanges reflect fraying trust with implications for NATO and Ukraine diplomacy.
Australia’s world‑first ban on social media for under‑16s has gone live, prompting tech and policy scrutiny. Governments and platforms are braced for enforcement, legal challenges and global policy ripple effects.
Oil prices oscillated as supply growth capped gains while traders eyed Ukraine peace talks for demand signals. Commodity houses warn of a potential supply surplus that could pressure prices into 2026.
Australia’s mining sector faced a political spotlight as business leaders warn regulation threatens competitiveness while miners secure big financing. The contrast highlights stress between policy and capital flows in resources.
Palantir’s government work expanded with new Navy software and a separate $448M award to overhaul submarine maintenance, underscoring defense tech contracting momentum. The contracts aim to speed shipbuilding and supply‑chain performance.
U.S. regulators eased bank rules around crypto activity even as oversight debates intensify. Firms and lawmakers are grappling with whether banks should act as custodians and intermediaries for digital assets.
The White House moved to complete the last round of interviews for the next Fed chair as the administration weighs candidates. The timing matters for markets expecting a rate cut and the Fed’s 2026 outlook.
