Market Summary
Markets trade cautiously ahead of the Fed decision: S&P 500 and Nasdaq are flat to slightly higher while the Dow lags. Futures show investors pricing a 25bp cut, sending Treasury yields lower and fueling commodity strength (notably silver). Volatility remains elevated with tech, energy and precious metals driving moves amid geopolitical and AI-policy headlines.
Markets and the Federal Reserve loom large as investors await policy guidance. Short-term moves in futures and rate expectations are driving market positioning ahead of the Fed decision.
Figure of the Day
25% – The U.S. insisted on a 25% cut or surcharge as part of the H200 export approval framework for Nvidia.
The White House cleared the way for Nvidia to ship advanced H200 AI chips to China, marking a major pivot in U.S. export policy. The move immediately reshapes geopolitics and corporate strategy for AI supply chains.
Beijing is preparing countermeasures after Washington’s decision, limiting domestic access and pushing self-reliance in chips. China’s moves signal a potential decoupling in advanced-AI hardware despite new export approvals.
Bullish
Meesho Soars in Debut, Market Cap Hits $8.4B
Indian e‑commerce Meesho jumped sharply in its IPO, giving the company an $8.4 billion valuation and underscoring investor appetite for India listings.
More on bloomberg.com
SpaceX is advancing plans for a record-setting IPO in 2026, targeting massive capital raises. The company’s listing would reshape public markets and raise fresh questions about valuation and control.
Hollywood dealmaking exploded as Paramount Skydance launched a hostile bid for Warner Bros., reigniting a bidding war with Netflix. The takeover fight puts CNN and cable networks in limbo and pressures media valuations.
Bearish
First Brands Liquidation Looms as DIP Loan Collapses
First Brands faces potential liquidation after a debtor-in-possession loan collapsed, highlighting risks in heavily leveraged consumer credit structures and pressuring creditors.
More on zerohedge.com
Ukraine’s leadership signals elections could proceed if security conditions permit, a controversial move amid war. Meanwhile, battlefield activity remains intense with regular drone and missile strikes.
Hostilities in the Levant escalated as Israel carried out fresh airstrikes in southern Lebanon. Gaza reconstruction efforts face logistical and funding hurdles that threaten recovery timelines.
Regulatory Impact
White House approved controlled exports of Nvidia H200 chips to approved Chinese customers (with a U.S. profit cut), while Beijing prepares curbs; central banks signal shifting Fed guidance ahead of a rate decision.
HSBC faces legal and governance pressure in France as it nears a criminal settlement. Internal scrutiny of senior roles adds to reputational challenges at the global bank.
Big tech hyperscalers double down on India with multibillion-dollar investments to capture the AI and cloud growth opportunity. The moves intensify competition for talent and infrastructure across the subcontinent.
Quote
“You ain’t seen nothing yet.”
— SEC Chair Paul Atkins
Silver’s price has surged to record levels amid tight supply and rate-cut expectations, drawing investor and industrial demand. Precious metals markets are reacting sharply to macro and demand-side shifts.
China’s consumer inflation is accelerating even as producer deflation deepens, complicating policymakers’ choices. A record trade surplus and tariff tensions add pressure to economic diplomacy.
South Korea’s Coupang is in crisis after a massive customer data leak, triggering executive fallout. The CEO’s resignation underscores regulatory and trust risks for e-commerce platforms.
Bond markets and European equities trade cautiously ahead of US policy moves, with yields edging lower as investors reposition. Market direction is highly sensitive to Fed guidance.
Power demands from AI data centers are raising red flags for utilities and grid operators. Warnings from energy executives underscore potential infrastructure strain as datacenter buildouts accelerate.
Debt-heavy buyouts and mega-deals are back, testing bond markets and investor appetite for leveraged financing. Big buyback programs in Europe add fuel to a record M&A and capital-return cycle.
China’s upstream materials and chip supply chains are reorganizing to address overcapacity and tech transfer risks. Allegations over IP transfers renew scrutiny of cross-border semiconductor deals.
Dutch insurer Aegon is moving its HQ to the U.S. and preparing a large buyback to refocus growth. The shift marks a strategic reorientation toward American markets and brand repositioning.
Labor-market signals are mixed: job openings have risen, but hiring momentum is softening, complicating the Fed’s outlook. The data points suggest a ‘low-hire, low-fire’ environment with stickier labor supply.
