Market Summary
Stocks traded cautiously as futures baked in a near‑certain Fed 25bp cut. S&P 500 and Nasdaq ticked higher while the Dow lagged; bond yields slipped then steadied. Tech and AI names led intraday gains, silver and crypto rallied on rate‑cut optimism, and Treasury guidance plus corporate earnings set the near‑term tone.
The Federal Reserve meets amid internal divisions as markets price in a likely quarter-point cut. Policymakers will signal the path for 2026, making Powell’s guidance the main market driver.
Figure of the Day
25% – Surcharge reportedly tied to U.S. approval for Nvidia H200 chip sales to China.
Washington approved shipment of Nvidia H200 chips to China while Beijing meets firms to weigh purchases — a rapid policy reversal with big tech and national-security stakes. Markets and regulators in both countries scramble to adapt.
SpaceX pushes ahead with plans for a record-setting IPO in 2026, targeting valuations well into the trillions. The move would reshape the space and tech finance landscape if it proceeds as reported.
Bullish
GE Vernova Soars After Dividend and Buyback Boost
GE Vernova lifted guidance and pledged higher dividends and buybacks after an upbeat outlook tied to electrification and gas demand, sending shares to record highs.
More on finance.yahoo.com
A fierce takeover battle erupts over Warner Bros. Discovery as Paramount launches a hostile bid while Netflix pursues parts of the company. The bids threaten a major reshuffle in Hollywood and debt markets.
Palantir scored a major U.S. Navy contract to deploy AI across submarine fleets, marking a big win in defense tech. The award underlines continued government demand for AI and secure data platforms.
Bearish
Bank Halves Bitcoin Target — Sharp Recalibration
A major bank slashed its bitcoin year‑end target from $200k to $100k, signaling a more cautious institutional view of crypto’s short‑term upside amid volatility.
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Silver hit fresh records as industrial demand from AI data centers and supply tightness collide with rate-cut bets. Traders and strategists now debate whether the rally is durable or a speculative blow-off.
Amazon committed fresh, massive capital to India to deepen logistics, cloud and AI presence as hyperscalers race for market share. The pledge signals intensifying tech competition and long-term growth bets in Asia.
Regulatory Impact
Fed to cut rates 25bp today but signals fewer cuts in 2026; Trump administration green‑lights Nvidia H200 exports to China with conditions; U.S. Treasury seeks larger role in anti‑money‑laundering enforcement; Australia enacts under‑16 social media ban.
Big tech pours capital into infrastructure: Microsoft’s multibillion India cloud bet and Google’s backing of deep geothermal signal a shift to heavy, long-term physical investments. Investors see diversification beyond pure software plays.
The IMF pressed China to rebalance growth toward consumption while revising forecasts — Beijing faces mounting external pressure as its surplus balloons. Policy tweaks and FX moves will be watched closely by markets.
Quote
AI is going to have a terrifying impact on employment — it goes beyond lost paychecks.
— Howard Marks, Oaktree Capital
The EU sealed an ambitious 2040 climate target while moving to unlock billions in frozen Russian assets to fund efforts tied to security and Ukraine. Brussels is balancing climate ambition with geopolitical finance tools.
Australia’s world-first ban on under‑16s using social media took effect, prompting global scrutiny and questions about enforceability. Regulators and platforms now face the operational test of implementation.
South Korea e-commerce giant Coupang faced a historic data breach and its CEO resigned amid the fallout, underscoring corporate governance and cybersecurity risks for large platforms. The episode will draw regulatory and investor scrutiny.
U.S. agencies move to fold crypto into regulated finance: the CFTC’s pilot would allow crypto as collateral while the OCC readies banks to act as brokers. The steps mark accelerating institutional adoption under tighter oversight.
Bitcoin and major tokens rallied ahead of the Fed decision as traders chased rate-cut optimism, reversing recent short pressure. Crypto flows remain fragile but inflows into ETFs signal growing institutional demand.
President Trump unveiled a $12bn bailout for farmers hit by his tariff regime even as equipment maker Deere warns tariffs are forcing job cuts. The package is seen as short-term relief amid deeper trade-driven disruption.
The European Central Bank looks set to hold policy through 2026 as inflation cools, while officials note momentum picking up. Markets weigh a long pause against domestic growth upgrades.
Eli Lilly announced a $6bn Alabama plant for next‑gen weight-loss pills, while Roche reported a breast‑cancer pill cutting recurrence risk by 30% — a sign of strong pharma M&A and R&D momentum in specialty drugs.
Rwanda-backed M23 rebels claim capture of Uvira in eastern Congo as regional instability rises. Simultaneously, the U.S. imposed sanctions over actors fueling Sudan’s war — a sign of growing geopolitical volatility across Africa.
