Market Summary
Markets traded cautiously ahead of the Fed, with the S&P 500 largely flat, the Nasdaq under pressure and the Dow slightly higher. Treasury yields ticked up as traders priced the rate cut, volatility rose in tech and AI names led sector moves. Key catalysts: Fed language, Nvidia-China chip approval and corporate M&A activity.
The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates at its December meeting amid internal divisions. Markets are focused on the decision and the tone from Chair Powell, which will shape expectations for 2026 policy.
Figure of the Day
25 bps – Expected Federal Reserve rate cut at Dec FOMC meeting.
The race to replace Fed Chair Powell is heating up, with Kevin Hassett prominent but facing shifting odds. Presidential timelines and political pressure are shaping candidate momentum.
Markets and Treasuries are reacting to the Fed outlook: bond yields inch higher as equities stall. Traders are weighing the durability of recent moves ahead of Fed guidance.
Bullish
GE Vernova rallies to record as electrification bet pays off
GE Vernova’s stock hit new highs after lifting long-term outlook and boosting buybacks, signaling investors are backing its electrification and AI-infrastructure strategy.
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The White House approved Nvidia shipments of advanced H200 chips to China under new terms. The move reshapes U.S.-China tech policy and sparks debate over national-security trade-offs.
SpaceX’s IPO plans and corporate crypto holdings are driving fresh market speculation. Investors are pricing public-market expectations for the largest-ever possible listing.
Bearish
Cracker Barrel cuts forecast after rebrand fiasco — sales disappoint
Cracker Barrel trimmed guidance after weaker-than-expected traffic and lingering fallout from a branding misstep, forcing management to warn recovery will take time.
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Bidders are positioning for a prolonged fight over Warner Bros. Discovery, with hostile offers and counterplays reshaping media valuations. Strategic winners and cable network futures are in flux.
New investigations allege Instacart used AI-driven dynamic pricing, triggering market fallout. The company’s shares fell after reports suggested differential pricing for identical items.
Regulatory Impact
Fed prepares a 25bp cut; White House clears limited Nvidia H200 exports to China with a 25% levy; U.S. proposes social-media history checks for visa-free visitors; Education Dept. settlement would end the SAVE pause and restart repayments for many borrowers.
Amazon is accelerating investment in India while expanding same-day grocery delivery in the U.S., pressuring rivals and reshaping logistics and AI deployment. The moves underline Amazon’s global growth push.
Apple CEO Tim Cook met lawmakers to lobby against online-safety provisions requiring app-store age verification. The closed-door talks highlight clashes over regulation of app ecosystems.
Quote
“Be careful what you wish for: further rate cuts could signal the economy is slipping into real danger.”
— Claudia Sahm, economist
The Department of Homeland Security is acquiring Boeing 737s to support deportation flights, a move that has budget and political implications. Procurement details and costs are drawing scrutiny.
The Education Department reached a settlement that would end the Biden-era SAVE repayment pause, potentially restarting repayments for millions. Borrowers face a limited window to enroll in replacement plans.
EU states are racing to unlock and repurpose frozen Russian assets for Ukraine reconstruction, but political roadblocks remain. Moves to bypass holdouts signal a push to mobilize large-scale financing.
Regulators found major banks had ‘debanked’ politically sensitive industries, prompting scrutiny of banking practices. The OCC and other regulators are intensifying oversight on access to financial services.
Lawsuits accuse major chipmakers of enabling Russian weapons use, spurring investor concern and legal risk. Intel and peers face claims that could hit reputations and stock prices.
The IMF again urged China to rebalance from export-led growth to domestic consumption and speed reforms. The recommendation underscores global concern about trade imbalances and geopolitical spillovers.
Australia’s landmark ban on under-16s using social media went into effect, prompting global debate on enforcement and impacts. The law could influence other countries considering youth online regulations.
Billionaires and tech giants race to build orbital data centers — a new frontier in cloud infrastructure. Rival projects and satellite AI tests are accelerating interest in space-based compute.
Switzerland and the U.S. agreed on retroactive tariff reductions, easing trade frictions for certain goods. The move is part of broader talks on tariff ceilings and trade normalization.
