Gold price surged
to $4,355 per ounce today (Monday), December 15, 2025, marking its fifth
consecutive session of gains and approaching the all-time high of $4,383
reached on October 20.
The
precious metal climbed 0.5% at the end of last week, testing $4,353, and
continues trading just $28 below historical maximums. This rally represents a
stunning 66% year-to-date performance, significantly outpacing most traditional
asset classes.
In this article, I look for answers to why gold price is
surging and what the latest gold price forecasts suggest.
Why Gold Is Surging? Federal
Reserve Rate Cuts Fuel Rally
The Federal
Reserve delivered its third 25-basis-point rate cut of 2025 during its December
9-10 meeting, bringing the federal funds rate to its lowest level in three
years. This dovish policy stance has dramatically reduced the opportunity cost
of holding non-yielding assets like gold, triggering massive capital flows into
precious metals.
Markets
currently price in a 75.6% probability of a pause at the January meeting,
though Fed Chair Stephen Miran and New York Fed President John Williams are
scheduled to speak today, potentially providing fresh guidance on the policy
trajectory. The central bank is simultaneously purchasing $40 billion in bonds
monthly, adding liquidity to the financial system and pressuring the dollar
lower.
What is the price of gold today? Source: Goldprice.org
Ten-year
U.S. Treasury yields climbed to 4.2%, the highest since early September,
creating a paradox where nominal rates rise but real yields fall, a
historically bullish configuration for gold.
Why Gold Is Surging Today? Metal Rises With Bitcoin Price as U.S. Advances Shutdown Deal, Keeping Price Predictions Bullish
Gold Is Surging And This New Gold Price Prediction Targets 35% Upside Above $5,500
As Ray
Youssef from NoOnes notes, “Gold’s move from around $4,200 before the
Fed’s 25-bps announcement to $4,326 reveals that smart capital is hedging
policy ambiguity.”
How High Can Gold Go?
Technical Analysis Shows Strong Momentum
Gold
futures are strengthening with rising bullish DMI/ADX signals, suggesting
sustained upward momentum, according to Michał Pietrzyca from Bossafx. The
price is pressuring the upper bullish range of $4,345-$4,381, with critical
resistance at the seven-week maximum near the technical pivot of $4,350.
According
to my own technical analysis, the friday’s pin bar pattern indicates supply
rejected the bull move toward all-time highs, though the new week brings
another attempt at price discovery.
Gold price prediction based on technical analysis. Source: Tradingview.com
Key support
levels include the 50-day EMA combined with the psychological $4,000 threshold,
followed by a secondary support zone around $3,900 where late October and early
November lows reside. Deeper support sits at $3,600 (200-day EMA) and the major
range of $3,273-$3,441, representing previous April-August highs.
Silver has
accompanied gold’s ascent, reaching a record $62.37 and posting a 120%
year-to-date gain, demonstrating broad-based precious metals strength.
Gold Price Prediction: Major
Banks Forecast $5,000 Gold
Wall
Street’s largest institutions have dramatically increased their gold price
forecasts, with several predicting the metal will breach $5,000 per ounce in
2026:
- Bank of
America raised
its 2026 forecast to $5,000, with an average of $4,400, stating “a 6-14%
increase in investment demand, similar to this year’s trend, could elevate gold
to $5,000 per ounce”. - Goldman
Sachs lifted its December 2026 target to
$4,900 from $4,300, noting “risks associated with our revised gold price forecast are
predominantly tilted towards the upside, as private sector investments in the
comparatively small gold market may enhance ETF holdings beyond our
rates-implied calculations”. The bank expects central bank buying to
average 80 tonnes in 2025 and 70 tonnes in 2026. - HSBC projects gold could reach $5,000 in the first half of 2026, raising
its average 2026 forecast to $4,600 from $3,950. The bank stated, “Unlike
previous rallies, we believe many of these new buyers are likely to remain in
the gold market, even after the rally concludes, not solely for appreciation
but also gold’s diversification and safe haven attributes”. - Société
Générale also
targets $5,000 by end-2026, with head of commodity research Mike Haigh
declaring “Gold’s ascent to $5000 seems increasingly inevitable”.
While
consensus forecasts cluster around $5,000, two extreme scenarios demonstrate
gold’s potential range in 2026, from spectacular gains to significant
corrections. In their “Outrageous Predictions 2026” report, Saxo Bank
outlines two tail-risk scenarios that could send gold skyrocketing to
unprecedented levels.
The first
involves “Q-Day,” when a quantum computer breaks standard digital
encryption. Neil Wilson, Saxo’s UK Investor Strategist, warns this would
trigger trust collapse in digital assets and traditional banking systems.
“Bitcoin collapses toward zero. Fear spills into traditional finance… Gold
rockets toward $10,000 as the ultimate ‘no-password’ asset,” Wilson
projects.
Balancing
the euphoric forecasts, the World Gold Council’s Gold Outlook 2026 report
presents four distinct macroeconomic scenarios, including a bearish
“Reflation Return” path where gold
could crash 5-20% from current levels.
Major Bank Gold Price
Forecasts Table 2026
|
Institution |
2026 Target |
Average 2026 Forecast |
Timeline |
Key Rationale |
|
Bank of America |
$5,000 |
$4,400 |
End-2026 |
6-14% |
|
Goldman Sachs |
$4,900 |
– |
December 2026 |
Private |
|
HSBC |
$5,000 |
$4,600 |
First half 2026 |
New |
|
Société Générale |
$5,000 |
– |
End-2026 |
“Gold’s |
|
Saxo Bank |
$10,000 |
– |
2026 |
Quantum |
|
Saxo Bank (Golden Yuan) |
$6,000+ |
– |
2026 |
China |
|
World |
$3,360-$3,990 |
– |
2026 |
Reflation |
What’s Next for Gold
Prices?
Critical
data releases this week could determine gold’s trajectory toward all-time
highs. Tuesday brings U.S. employment reports for October and November,
including nonfarm payrolls, average hourly earnings, and the unemployment rate,
metrics that will shape expectations for the Fed’s January meeting.
The Bank of
Japan meeting on December 19 represents another potential pivot point, as any
tightening by the BOJ could trigger yen strength and broader currency market
volatility.
Pietrzyca
added that “uncertainty and risk aversion may increase capital flows to
safe havens” while highlighting important technical support at $3,919.
FAQ: Gold Price Analysis Questions
Will gold reach $5,000 per
ounce?
Bank of
America, HSBC, and Société Générale all forecast gold will hit $5,000 in 2026,
driven by continued Fed easing, central bank buying, and ETF inflows. Goldman
Sachs predicts $4,900 by December 2026. The consensus among major institutions
places 2026 forecasts between $4,000 and $5,300 per ounce.
Why is gold price surging
right now?
Gold is
surging due to the Federal Reserve’s third rate cut of 2025, dollar weakness,
safe-haven demand from tech sector rotation, central bank diversification away
from U.S. Treasuries, and robust ETF inflows. Lower interest rates reduce the
opportunity cost of holding gold while geopolitical uncertainty increases
safe-haven appeal.
Is gold a good investment
in 2026?
Experts
remain bullish on gold for 2026, though they caution that repeating 2025’s 66%
returns is unlikely. Most analysts expect double-digit percentage gains
supported by Fed policy, dollar weakness, and structural demand from central
banks. Gold performs best as a long-term investment during periods of economic
uncertainty and currency debasement.
What drives gold prices
higher?
Key drivers
include Federal Reserve monetary policy and real interest rates, U.S. dollar
strength, inflation expectations, central bank reserve diversification,
geopolitical risks, and physical demand from technology and jewelry industries.
When real yields fall or turn negative, gold becomes more attractive relative
to bonds and cash equivalents.
Gold price surged
to $4,355 per ounce today (Monday), December 15, 2025, marking its fifth
consecutive session of gains and approaching the all-time high of $4,383
reached on October 20.
The
precious metal climbed 0.5% at the end of last week, testing $4,353, and
continues trading just $28 below historical maximums. This rally represents a
stunning 66% year-to-date performance, significantly outpacing most traditional
asset classes.
In this article, I look for answers to why gold price is
surging and what the latest gold price forecasts suggest.
Why Gold Is Surging? Federal
Reserve Rate Cuts Fuel Rally
The Federal
Reserve delivered its third 25-basis-point rate cut of 2025 during its December
9-10 meeting, bringing the federal funds rate to its lowest level in three
years. This dovish policy stance has dramatically reduced the opportunity cost
of holding non-yielding assets like gold, triggering massive capital flows into
precious metals.
Markets
currently price in a 75.6% probability of a pause at the January meeting,
though Fed Chair Stephen Miran and New York Fed President John Williams are
scheduled to speak today, potentially providing fresh guidance on the policy
trajectory. The central bank is simultaneously purchasing $40 billion in bonds
monthly, adding liquidity to the financial system and pressuring the dollar
lower.
What is the price of gold today? Source: Goldprice.org
Ten-year
U.S. Treasury yields climbed to 4.2%, the highest since early September,
creating a paradox where nominal rates rise but real yields fall, a
historically bullish configuration for gold.
Why Gold Is Surging Today? Metal Rises With Bitcoin Price as U.S. Advances Shutdown Deal, Keeping Price Predictions Bullish
Gold Is Surging And This New Gold Price Prediction Targets 35% Upside Above $5,500
As Ray
Youssef from NoOnes notes, “Gold’s move from around $4,200 before the
Fed’s 25-bps announcement to $4,326 reveals that smart capital is hedging
policy ambiguity.”
How High Can Gold Go?
Technical Analysis Shows Strong Momentum
Gold
futures are strengthening with rising bullish DMI/ADX signals, suggesting
sustained upward momentum, according to Michał Pietrzyca from Bossafx. The
price is pressuring the upper bullish range of $4,345-$4,381, with critical
resistance at the seven-week maximum near the technical pivot of $4,350.
According
to my own technical analysis, the friday’s pin bar pattern indicates supply
rejected the bull move toward all-time highs, though the new week brings
another attempt at price discovery.
Gold price prediction based on technical analysis. Source: Tradingview.com
Key support
levels include the 50-day EMA combined with the psychological $4,000 threshold,
followed by a secondary support zone around $3,900 where late October and early
November lows reside. Deeper support sits at $3,600 (200-day EMA) and the major
range of $3,273-$3,441, representing previous April-August highs.
Silver has
accompanied gold’s ascent, reaching a record $62.37 and posting a 120%
year-to-date gain, demonstrating broad-based precious metals strength.
Gold Price Prediction: Major
Banks Forecast $5,000 Gold
Wall
Street’s largest institutions have dramatically increased their gold price
forecasts, with several predicting the metal will breach $5,000 per ounce in
2026:
- Bank of
America raised
its 2026 forecast to $5,000, with an average of $4,400, stating “a 6-14%
increase in investment demand, similar to this year’s trend, could elevate gold
to $5,000 per ounce”. - Goldman
Sachs lifted its December 2026 target to
$4,900 from $4,300, noting “risks associated with our revised gold price forecast are
predominantly tilted towards the upside, as private sector investments in the
comparatively small gold market may enhance ETF holdings beyond our
rates-implied calculations”. The bank expects central bank buying to
average 80 tonnes in 2025 and 70 tonnes in 2026. - HSBC projects gold could reach $5,000 in the first half of 2026, raising
its average 2026 forecast to $4,600 from $3,950. The bank stated, “Unlike
previous rallies, we believe many of these new buyers are likely to remain in
the gold market, even after the rally concludes, not solely for appreciation
but also gold’s diversification and safe haven attributes”. - Société
Générale also
targets $5,000 by end-2026, with head of commodity research Mike Haigh
declaring “Gold’s ascent to $5000 seems increasingly inevitable”.
While
consensus forecasts cluster around $5,000, two extreme scenarios demonstrate
gold’s potential range in 2026, from spectacular gains to significant
corrections. In their “Outrageous Predictions 2026” report, Saxo Bank
outlines two tail-risk scenarios that could send gold skyrocketing to
unprecedented levels.
The first
involves “Q-Day,” when a quantum computer breaks standard digital
encryption. Neil Wilson, Saxo’s UK Investor Strategist, warns this would
trigger trust collapse in digital assets and traditional banking systems.
“Bitcoin collapses toward zero. Fear spills into traditional finance… Gold
rockets toward $10,000 as the ultimate ‘no-password’ asset,” Wilson
projects.
Balancing
the euphoric forecasts, the World Gold Council’s Gold Outlook 2026 report
presents four distinct macroeconomic scenarios, including a bearish
“Reflation Return” path where gold
could crash 5-20% from current levels.
Major Bank Gold Price
Forecasts Table 2026
|
Institution |
2026 Target |
Average 2026 Forecast |
Timeline |
Key Rationale |
|
Bank of America |
$5,000 |
$4,400 |
End-2026 |
6-14% |
|
Goldman Sachs |
$4,900 |
– |
December 2026 |
Private |
|
HSBC |
$5,000 |
$4,600 |
First half 2026 |
New |
|
Société Générale |
$5,000 |
– |
End-2026 |
“Gold’s |
|
Saxo Bank |
$10,000 |
– |
2026 |
Quantum |
|
Saxo Bank (Golden Yuan) |
$6,000+ |
– |
2026 |
China |
|
World |
$3,360-$3,990 |
– |
2026 |
Reflation |
What’s Next for Gold
Prices?
Critical
data releases this week could determine gold’s trajectory toward all-time
highs. Tuesday brings U.S. employment reports for October and November,
including nonfarm payrolls, average hourly earnings, and the unemployment rate,
metrics that will shape expectations for the Fed’s January meeting.
The Bank of
Japan meeting on December 19 represents another potential pivot point, as any
tightening by the BOJ could trigger yen strength and broader currency market
volatility.
Pietrzyca
added that “uncertainty and risk aversion may increase capital flows to
safe havens” while highlighting important technical support at $3,919.
FAQ: Gold Price Analysis Questions
Will gold reach $5,000 per
ounce?
Bank of
America, HSBC, and Société Générale all forecast gold will hit $5,000 in 2026,
driven by continued Fed easing, central bank buying, and ETF inflows. Goldman
Sachs predicts $4,900 by December 2026. The consensus among major institutions
places 2026 forecasts between $4,000 and $5,300 per ounce.
Why is gold price surging
right now?
Gold is
surging due to the Federal Reserve’s third rate cut of 2025, dollar weakness,
safe-haven demand from tech sector rotation, central bank diversification away
from U.S. Treasuries, and robust ETF inflows. Lower interest rates reduce the
opportunity cost of holding gold while geopolitical uncertainty increases
safe-haven appeal.
Is gold a good investment
in 2026?
Experts
remain bullish on gold for 2026, though they caution that repeating 2025’s 66%
returns is unlikely. Most analysts expect double-digit percentage gains
supported by Fed policy, dollar weakness, and structural demand from central
banks. Gold performs best as a long-term investment during periods of economic
uncertainty and currency debasement.
What drives gold prices
higher?
Key drivers
include Federal Reserve monetary policy and real interest rates, U.S. dollar
strength, inflation expectations, central bank reserve diversification,
geopolitical risks, and physical demand from technology and jewelry industries.
When real yields fall or turn negative, gold becomes more attractive relative
to bonds and cash equivalents.
