By Marc Jones
LONDON, Dec 18 (Reuters) – By Marc Jones, Global Markets Correspondent
Investors’ top focus today is the delayed – and slightly unusual – U.S. consumer price inflation report, which will be an important marker for whether the Federal Reserve is likely to keep cutting interest rates next year. Meanwhile, Wall Street will be watching the tech sector again after the latest signs of bubble trouble due to big spending AI plans at the likes of Oracle.
I’ll get into all the market news below.
But first check out Mike Dolan’s latest column on why the Bank of England, which is due to cut UK rates very shortly, probably needs to start picking up the pace.
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Today’s Market Minute
* Oil and gas major BP has appointed Meg O’Neill, the headof Australia’s Woodside Energy as its next CEO to lead itseffort to boost profits and refocus on oil and gas after adetour into renewables. * ROI Energy Columnist Ron Bousso argues that the surpriseappointment of O’Neill as BP’s first outsider CEO offers thebruised $90 billion British oil company three clear strategicchoices for moving forward: build, buy or be bought. * In a high-security Shenzhen laboratory, Chinese scientistshave built what Washington has spent years trying to prevent: aprototype of a machine capable of producing the cutting-edgesemiconductor chips that power artificial intelligence,smartphones and weapons central to Western military dominance,Reuters has learned. * Asia’s imports of U.S. crude oil, coal and liquefiednatural gas are on track to decline this year despite PresidentDonald Trump’s efforts to boost shipments as part of his tradeand tariff policies, writes ROI Asia Commodities Columnist ClydeRussell. * There is much discussion in U.S. economic circles around”R-star”, the theoretical rate of interest that neither spursnor crimps economic activity. But Federal Reserve officialscould soon shift their focus to “U-star,” argues ROI FinanceColumnist Jamie McGeever.
Optics and Oracles
The day’s top focus is the delayed U.S. consumer price inflation report for November out at 1330 GMT. It will be an important marker for whether the Fed is likely to keep cutting its interest rates next year, although this is not a normal CPI report by any stretch.
As the government was in shutdown mode the October data wasn’t collected, so there won’t be the usual monthly change number that traders normally zoom in on, meaning the focus will instead be on the year-on-year rates, and how those compare to the previous print in September.
Economists asked by the Reuters polling team reckon CPI likely increased 3.1% year-on-year in November, which would be the largest gain since May 2024 and up from the 3.0% advance in the 12 months through to September.
But the CPI could print below expectations as the delays to the data collection process mean it was being done when holiday season discounting was in full swing, which could be evident in lower prices for things like furniture and recreation goods.
The tech darlings will undoubtedly remain in the spotlight, too. Wall Street took a turn for the worse Wednesday after ominous-looking news around a $10 billion funding deal for one of Oracle’s big U.S. data centres slammed its shares again and saw the mighty Mag 7 have its worst day in over a month. It’s all to do with nagging concerns about the stratospheric amounts of money pouring into artificial intelligence – and whether it has inflated the mother of all bubbles.
Before we get to all that though there is plenty of top-tier European action to get through. The Bank of England looks a sure bet to cut UK interest rates. It already was before a soft inflation reading on Wednesday, so the bigger question will be – as Mike Dolan notes – how quickly it follows up.
We’ll then hop over to Frankfurt where Christine Lagarde’s European Central Bank will stay on hold, something it is likely to be doing for a long, long time. And in Brussels it is supposed to be decision day in the EU’s long-running drama of how to use frozen Russian central bank reserves to prop up Ukraine.
Boomeranging back to the U.S. there’s weekly jobless claims data, too. It probably won’t move the dial too much, even if it does coincide with the December nonfarm payrolls survey week, and lastly earnings are due from both Nike and FedEx after the close, both of which are seen as pretty decent bellwethers for the global economy at large.
Chart of the day
Concerns around a potential AI bubble are simmering. Server-giant Oracle seems to be front and center. Its 5-year credit default swaps, which debt investors use to hedge their exposure to the firm, have surged to their highest level since the global financial crisis, while its shares have halved in price since mid-October’s flagship deal with OpenAI pushed them up by over a third.Analysts worry that the company’s capital expenditure is expected to rise nearly 70% to $35 billion – more than half the firm’s anticipated revenue. By comparison, Microsoft’s proportion will be around 30%.
Today’s events to watch (times in GMT)
* 1200 – Bank of England Rate Decision * 1315 – ECB Rate Decision * 1330 – U.S. November CPI * 1330 – U.S. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims * 1330 – U.S. Dec. Philly Fed Survey * Nike earnings * FedEx earnings
Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
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(By Marc Jones; Editing by Hugh Lawson)
