Big stock market forecasts can be easy to overlook, especially when the numbers feel more like wishful thinking.
However, some strategists earn the benefit of the doubt, especially when they have built a solid reputation for being right more often than not.
Mary Ann Bartels has built that reputation.
Bartels has been quietly making the right calls, drawing on roughly four decades of senior leadership experience, including at Bank of America/Merrill Lynch.
Currently, Bartels serves as the chief investment strategist at Sanctuary Wealth, a “supported independence” wealth platform.
The firm operates a robust hybrid RIA and broker-dealer model, backing over 125 partner advisory firms spearheading more than $55 billion in assets.
For example, in late 2023, she told Barron’s The Way Forward podcast that Big Tech may drive the market to new highs in 2024.
That forecast proved prescient as the “Magnificent Seven” helped lift the S&P 500 to record levels and nearly a 25% gain.
A year later, she made another head-turning prediction, saying the market could surge nearly 20% in 2025.
With only a few weeks left in the year and the S&P 500 up more than 15%, according to IG, her prediction is again within striking distance.
So when Bartels forecasts the S&P 500 reaching as high as 13,000 by 2030, it’s far from being just noise.
Bartels is forecasting the S&P 500 to surge to a 10,000 to 13,000 range by the end of the decade.
For perspective, the index closed Friday, Dec. 19, 2025, at 6,834.50.
A move towards the 10,000 mark represents nearly a 46% gain, while the high-end 13,000 target points to a 90% increase over the next few years.
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However, Bartels is quick to point out that the path ahead is unlikely to be smooth.
Markets, she argues, “cannot continue to go vertical,” pointing to a relatively choppy 2026, calling it a “necessary correction” following years of outsized gains.
Multiple Wall Street firms have published year-end 2026 targets, and Bartels isn’t exactly out on an island with her view.
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Oppenheimer Asset Management has a Street-high target at 8,100, according to Reuters, backed by $305 in S&P 500 earnings, along with a resilient U.S. economy, implying 18% upside at the time.
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Deutsche Bank projected 8,000, on the back of robust earnings momentum and AI-powered tailwinds, while modeling roughly $320 in EPS.
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Morgan Stanley bumped its target to 7,800, Bloomberg reported, outlining that risk-on assets are positioned for a powerful 2026 amid AI-driven capital spending and conducive policy.
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Citigroup landed at 7,700, with a bull case at a lofty 8,300 and a bear case of 5,700, expecting leadership to move into “AI adopters.”
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J.P. Morgan forecast 7,500, Reuters noted, on the back of a resilient economy and an AI “supercycle”.
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UBS initially targeted 7,500, with later strategist roundups pointing to a move closer to 7,700 on the back of the powerful AI-led rally.
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Bank of America Global Research, led by Savita Subramanian, took the most cautious stance at 7,100, modeling healthy earnings growth but multiple compression as valuations move downward.
