emerging trends and predictions for 2026

This year marked a significant change for the global mining industry as it navigated the impact of growing geopolitical tensions on commodity markets while racing to meet calls to decarbonise operations.

Eagle-eyed on critical minerals essential to the energy transition, including copper, lithium and rare earths, countries ramped up efforts this year to secure supply and strengthen supply chains against geopolitical risk. The West is keen to challenge China’s market dominance through protectionist policies, as well as strategic alliances involving foreign minerals.

As the demand for global critical minerals soars, mining operators are also increasingly using transformative technologies to optimise productivity and address challenges across the value chain.

The mining industry has been subject to the fallout of ongoing macroeconomic and geopolitical shifts throughout 2025, with trade relations reshaping supply dynamics as countries compete for transition minerals.

China is the gatekeeper of some of the world’s largest mineral supplies. It dominates the production of over 15 critical minerals, many of which are critical to the energy transition. For some, such as gallium and magnesium, China’s share of global production is so dominant (98% and 95%, respectively) that there is virtually no competition.

The Asian nation also accounts for 40% of the globe’s rare earth reserves, including neodymium, dysprosium, praseodymium and terbium. Its influence is even greater in separation and refining, representing about 91% of global capabilities.

Recognising the risks associated with over-reliance on China, countries have been rushing to diversify their supply chains this year. The US led in this effort, which unravelled into a full-blown trade war.

What began with Trump announcing a 10% tariff on Chinese imports in February and China retaliating with 10%-15% tariffs on certain US goods, alongside export controls on 25 rare earths, spiralled intoa wave of stricter tariffs which culminated in a 145% tariff rate on Chinese goods from the US and a 125% counter rate from China. When the US showed no signs of backing out, China expanded its export restrictions to include not only more rare earths but also lithium-ion batteries and graphite anode materials – all critical for the energy transition.

“With China’s strong control over rare earths and other key minerals, its export restrictions this year exposed the dependence of global automakers, electronics manufacturers and energy producers on Chinese capacity,” says Gayathri Siripurapu, associate project manager at MINE’s parent company, GlobalData.

As the year draws to a close, the US and China have de-escalated their tensions, with the US reducing the overall tariff on Chinese goods to around 47% and China suspending export bans and issuing new licenses.

However, Siripurapu believes that there’s further potential for trade-related conflict, with the US–China rivalry “expected to continue to shape most supply chain disruptions in 2026”.

The US represents countries across the world that have sought to not only invest more in domestic production but also establish new trade partners to overcome dependence on Chinese minerals.

For instance, the US and another industry leader, Australia, signed a rare earths deal in October 2025 to build on existing investments and policies to establish a competitive and diversified minerals market. A key component of the deal involves both countries identifying priority projects to secure supply chains. The US and Australia have agreed to finance $1bn (A$1.54bn) for projects in both countries within six months.

The US has also sought investment opportunities in Africa while Australia has looked towards Brazil and Indonesia.

Rebecca Campbell, global head of mining and metals at White & Case, says that other critical mineral-producing nations such as Indonesia, Chile and many African countries are becoming much more assertive about value capture, pushing for local processing and higher participation from government to build up their industries as a Chinese alternative.

Value capture is the process of recovering some or all the value public infrastructure creates for private landowners.

Campbell says: “Add conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, raising the cost and complexity of shipping, and you have a world where supply chains are no longer neutral, but increasingly shaped by political alignment.”

Siripurapu adds that mining and downstream industries are prioritising security of supply over lowest-cost sourcing, prompting diversification into new regions, long-term offtake agreements and investments in regional refining capacity.

As the wider energy industry made further headway in its decarbonisation ambitions this year, copper demand remains strong, as another critically important material for the energy transition, but it is uncertain whether supply can keep up.

Global copper mine output is projected to grow by 2.1% by the end of 2025 to 23.4 million tonnes (mt), up from 22.9mt in 2024. The modest growth is primarily due to production declines in key regions.

Copper production experienced several hits this year, including a mud rush at Freeport-McMoRan’s Grasberg block cave mine in Indonesia, which caused seven fatalities, after which it paused operations. Antofagasta also announced in October that production for 2025 would only reach the lower level of its previous forecast due to operational issues such as increasing input costs for diesel and water shortages in Northern Chile.

In 2026, production levels are expected recover slightly, with GlobalData expecting a 4.7% growth to 24.5mt mainly from increased output from Chile, Peru, DR Congo, Indonesia and China. However, Siripurapu notes that even with this new output, “the market is still projected to be tight”, and supply risks, including permitting delays, grade declines and social instability, will continue to weigh on the industry.

Renewables overtook coal in power generation for the first time, signifying a pivotal point in the energy transition.

Coal production only increased marginally this year, with GlobalData projecting a 1.2% output from 2024 to reach 9,333mt.

However, it is notable that a net increase in capacity is still forecast over the next decade, which will continue to buoy coal’s role within the power mix.

Siripurapu notes that while many advanced economies are moving away from coal and scaling up renewables, the shift is uneven across the world.

“Countries like India, China and those in Southeast Asia will continue to rely on coal for affordable, round-the-clock power, which will keep demand and production from falling sharply,” she explains.

Looking toward 2026, GlobalData projects that global coal production will continue to increase, though reflecting continued weak output from China, alongside oversupply in Indonesia and the US.

Siripurapu adds: “On the supply side, production growth is likely to come from India, Australia, South Africa and Russia, offsetting declines in China and the US. With investment in new coal mines slowing due to environmental, social and governance pressures, the market is unlikely to become oversupplied, which means prices will soften but remain supported by persistent demand.”

Meanwhile, historic gains for gold and silver, viewed as safe-haven assets by investors, also defined 2025.

Gold prices soared to a peak of around $4,380 per ounce in October and by more than 50% this year. The surge was driven by growing investment demand amid factors such as geopolitical tensions, dollar weakness and expected US Federal Reserve cuts.

Silver surpassed its previous record of $49.45 set in 1980, reaching over $60 per ounce in 2025.

In summary, Campbell says: “Unprecedented levels of demand in copper and precious metals reflect where the sector is concentrating its strategic attention.

“Electrification, grid expansion and energy-transition infrastructure will continue to drive intense interest in copper projects, slow interest in coal, while geopolitical uncertainty and growing industrial demand are keeping precious metals firmly in focus.”

The decarbonisation of the mining industry is no easy feat. Campbell explains that operators are dealing with constrained access to charging systems, power supply and batteries for ultra-class trucks.

Nevertheless, many leading companies are continuing to push forward to align with the global target of reaching net zero by – the latest – 2050, and electrification is at the heart of these efforts.

Mining companies are now planning their replacement cycles around electrification rather than treating it as an experiment, Campbell says. This year has seen considerable progress in the industry’s electrification, with a continued rise in the use of battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) on mining sites.

As of March 2025, GlobalData recorded in underground mines across the globe 271 trolley-assist trucks operating on surface mines compared to 239 a year ago; 293 electric loaders, up from 269; and 89 electric trucks, up from 69 a year ago. The number of battery-powered surface trucks, meanwhile, increased from 129 to 387.

“Electrification is becoming a practical operational choice. Underground mines in particular are moving quickly because BEVs [battery-electric vehicles] genuinely reduce ventilation costs and improve working conditions,” says Campbell.

She notes that the technology has matured this year, with major original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) investing heavily in improving BEVs.

“It’s not a revolution overnight, but the needle is clearly moving faster than it did even a year ago.”

Siripurapu points out that generally, the pace of transition will not be uniform across regions, as the cost of BEV technology and the lack of charging infrastructure continue to be major barriers – particularly for remote operations and in emerging markets.

“In 2026, the sharpest growth in BEV deployment is expected in Australia, Canada, Sweden, Finland and Chile, where national policies, renewable-energy availability and strong miner-OEM collaboration are creating conducive adoption environments. Australia is likely to remain the global frontrunner,” she adds.

Also crucial to the technology upgrade the industry has experienced this year is autonomous equipment. GlobalData reveals that the percentage of autonomous, autonomous-ready or tele-remote mining equipment adopted has increased rapidly in recent years to over 4% from less than 1% in 2020.

As of July 2025, GlobaData found 3,832 autonomous haul trucks operating on surface mines across the globe. This figure includes both those that are running autonomously and those that are autonomous-ready.

In May, XCMG announced the roll-out of the first 100-unit fully autonomous, all-electric trucks at Inner Mongolian Huaneng Yimin open-pit coal mine, in China. Epiroc and Hancock Iron Ore also launched a landmark project in October at the Roy Hill open-pit iron mine, in the Pilbara region of Australia, converting 78 haul trucks, 60 of them allocated to autonomous operation, to create the world’s largest fully agnostic autonomous mine.

Campbell comments: “Large open-pit operations have already shown how powerful autonomy can be: higher productivity, fewer safety incidents and the ability to run consistently in remote locations where attracting labour is getting harder every year.

“The technology is improving quickly, and importantly, companies are getting more comfortable with the legal and operational frameworks such as data ownership, liability and cyber risk. Governments are also catching up with clearer regulatory rules.

“In 2026, we expect to see autonomy spread beyond the usual Pilbara-style pioneers into big copper and gold operations across the Americas and Africa. It won’t be universal, but it will be significantly more mainstream.”

“Mining in 2025: emerging trends and predictions for 2026 ” was originally created and published by Mining Technology, a GlobalData owned brand.

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