Fed’s Miran (dove) on Bloomberg says his need to dissent on 50 bp cuts has become less

Fed’s Miran is speaking on Bloomberg TV.

• Says there were anomalies in inflation data tied to the government shutdown,

• Anomolies point toward the Fed needing to move in a more dovish direction

• Does not see a near-term recession

• Believes the neutral rate has shifted lower,

• Policy needs to reflect that shift

• Stresses it is important for the policy rate to continue adjusting lower; otherwise, recession risks increase

• Sees potential for tariff or tax refunds to boost growth, but says forecasts should wait until policy details are clearer

• On the possibility of a 50 bp cut at the next meeting:

  • Says that, given policy moves so far, the need to dissent and push for another 50 bp cut has diminished somewhat

  • Emphasizes the need to see incoming data before deciding

  • Notes the Fed may eventually reach a point of “micro-managing” the policy rate as it gets closer to neutral, but it is not there yet

• Uncertain about remaining at the Fed; says if no replacement is confirmed by end-January, he will assume he is staying on

Miran joined the Fed Board in September 2025 to fill an unexpired term that officially runs through January 31, 2026, and has quickly emerged as one of the most dovish voices on policy.

He has repeatedly argued that inflation data—particularly around the government shutdown—may be overstating underlying price pressures, that the neutral rate has shifted lower, and that policy should continue adjusting down to avoid increasing recession risks.

While he previously dissented in favor of larger rate cuts, Miran now says the case for another 50 bp cut has lessened somewhat given moves already made, stressing the need to stay data-dependent as the Fed approaches neutral.

Looking ahead, Miran has indicated he expects to remain on the Board beyond January if no successor is confirmed, but his longer-term future hinges on whether he is re-nominated and approved for a full term.

Miran did vote for a 50 basis point cut at the December meeting. The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points at that meeting for the 3rd cut in as many meetings. In 2024, the Fed cut rates by 100 basis points. In 2025 the Fed cut rates by 75 basis points.

The Fed started to cut rates in September 2024. At the time the 10-year yield was around 3.72%. The current rate is at 4.162%. The 30 year mortage moved from about 6.10% up to 7.04%. It is back down to 6.22%. The rate reaction debunks the notion bantered about by the Trump administration that the Fed cutting rates would help the housing market by making housing more affordable.