Oil prices nudged higher on Boxing Day as geopolitical risk rises in the markets.
Friday, December 26, 2025
The festive Christmas lull in oil trading saw oil prices post a weekly gain as geopolitical tensions helped push ICE Brent above the $62 per barrel mark. Venezuela and the potential choking of its heavy crude production remains the No. 1 topic, however the U.S.’ Boxing Day strikes on Nigeria could open up a new front of bullishness.
US Continues to Hunt Down Venezuela Tankers. The White House has ordered US military forces around Venezuela to ’quarantine’ Venezuelan oil for at least the next two months, just as the US Coast Guard lamented that it lacks forces to enforce a full blockade after a botched seizure of Bella 1.
China Issues 1st Batch of Product Quotas. China’s Commerce Ministry has issued 19 million tonnes worth of refined product export quotas, simultaneously to quotas for 8 million tonnes of very low-sulphur marine fuel, keeping volumes flat year-on-year as Beijing prioritizes domestic consumption.
Japanese Refiners Eye Singapore Expansion. Japan’s top refiner Eneos (TYO:5020) is shaping up to become the front-runner to buy Chevron’s stake in the 290,000 b/d Jurong Island refinery in Singapore, valued at approximately $1 billion, with Bloomberg reporting that a deal could be finalized very soon.
Kazakhstan Suffers Amidst Ukraine Drone Strikes. Kazakhstan’s main export grade, CPC Blend that’s shipped from Russia’s Black Sea, saw its December outflows cut by a third to 1.14 million b/d as stormy winter weather has been complicating repairs following a Ukrainian drone attack on the CPC port’s jetty.
Tehran Cuts Gas Supply to Iraq. Iran has halted pipeline gas deliveries to Iraq this week, leaving Baghdad and other major Iraqi cities with an electricity gap of 4,500 MW and prompting several forced shutdowns of generating units as Iran routinely supplies 35-40% of Iraq’s gas and power requirements.
CRAs Turn Bullish on Pemex. Fitch Ratings has upgraded the long-term national rating of Mexican state oil company Pemex to AA, citing the Sheinbaum government’s willingness to cushion its debt problems on the back of a recent $10 billion debt tender, just as Pemex reported Q3 2025 debt of $100.3 billion.
India Received US Waiver to Continue Rosneft Imports. India’s largest private refiner Reliance Industries has reportedly received a one-month waiver from the Trump administration to continue buying Russian crude from sanctioned Rosneft, allowing it to import 350,000 b/d in December.
BP Finally Finds Buyer for Its Castrol Unit. US investment firm Stonepeak, along with Canada’s Pension Plan Investment Board, agreed to purchase a 65% majority stake in BP’s lubricants division Castrol for $6 billion, with the UK major retaining a minority 35% stake following an expected end-2026 approval.
Beijing Bides Its Time with Rare Earth Exports. Despite China exporting the second-highest monthly volume of rare earth magnets ever in November, at 6,150 metric tonnes, US-bound deliveries were down 11% month-on-month as Beijing continues to restrict sales despite a Trump-Xi trade truce.
