Micron Technology(NASDAQ: MU) stock has more than tripled in 2026, rising an incredible 228% as of this writing. The memory specialist’s terrific surge is not surprising, as its revenue and earnings are growing at outstanding rates because of a favorable demand-supply environment.
The stock recently received a big shot in the arm after releasing its fiscal 2026 first-quarter result (for the three months ended Nov. 27) on Dec. 17. This sets Micron up for a solid start to the new year. But can this semiconductor stock sustain its momentum throughout 2026?
Let’s take a closer look at Micron’s prospects and check how much upside it could deliver in the coming year.
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Micron has started its latest fiscal year on a solid note. Its revenue shot up a remarkable 57% year over year in the previous quarter to $13.6 billion. The favorable pricing environment in memory chips led to a year-over-year increase of 7.5 percentage points in its non-GAAP operating margin to 35%. As a result, Micron’s adjusted earnings shot up by a whopping 167% to $4.78 per share.
The company’s guidance makes it clear that its phenomenal growth is unlikely to slow down in the current fiscal year (which will end in August 2026). The company anticipates a much stronger year-over-year jump of 132% in revenue in the current quarter to $18.7 billion. Non-GAAP earnings, meanwhile, are poised to soar by 440% to $8.42 per share in the current quarter.
A closer look at the memory market’s dynamics makes it clear why its growth is set to accelerate substantially. The booming demand for artificial intelligence (AI) accelerators deployed in data centers has led to a sharp increase in server memory demand. However, there isn’t enough supply available to meet that demand, creating a memory chip shortage and inflating prices.
Memory manufacturer Samsung, for instance, has reportedly increased memory chip prices by a whopping 60%. Meanwhile, market research firm Counterpoint Research estimates that the price of server memory used in data centers to accelerate AI workloads could double by the end of 2026. Similarly, the shortage is likely to drive up the price of memory chips used in smartphones and personal computers (PCs) as well in the new year.
An important point to note here is that Micron and other memory manufacturers are looking to boost production capacity to meet the surging demand. That’s why the company has raised its fiscal 2026 capital expenditure forecast to $20 billion, up from the prior estimate of $18 billion. That would be a big jump from the $13.8 billion capex that Micron incurred in the previous fiscal year.
However, Micron management won’t be able to fulfill the memory chip demand despite this big increase in capital spending. While responding to an analyst query on the latest earnings call, Micron CEO Sanjay Mehrotra said:
Driven by AI from data center to edge with the build-out of our customers, supply is significantly short. And, you know, I would say that … in the medium term, we are only able to meet about 50% to two-thirds of our demand from several key customers. So, we remain extremely focused on trying to increase the supply here and making the necessary investments.
In simpler words, the favorable demand-supply dynamics that Micron is benefiting from are here to stay in 2026.
Consensus estimates are anticipating Micron’s earnings in the current fiscal year to jump by 284% to $31.88 per share. It clocked $4.78 per share in earnings last quarter. That leaves the company with $27.10 per share in earnings to deliver over the next three quarters.
Assuming Micron’s bottom-line growth rate slows to even 100% in the first quarter of fiscal 2027 (which will end in November 2026) to $9.56 per share (based on the earnings it reported last quarter), its total earnings for the next four quarters will land at $36.66 per share.
Multiplying the estimated earnings after a year with the tech-laden Nasdaq-100 index’s forward earnings multiple of 25 suggests that Micron could be trading at $916 after a year. That’s more than triple its current stock price. So, investors should consider buying Micron while it is trading at 25 times earnings, which is extremely attractive considering how fast it is growing.
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Harsh Chauhan has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
