Market Summary
Markets closed 2025 with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq near record highs while the Dow lagged; equities were buoyed by AI and tech strength even as volatility ticked up. Bond yields cooled—2-year yields posted a sharp annual drop—and the dollar’s slide helped commodities and precious metals lead gains. Fed minutes and China demand were the main near-term catalysts.
The U.S. broadened sanctions tied to Venezuela’s oil shipments, targeting vessels and companies linked to Maduro’s regime as Washington ramps up pressure on Caracas and its maritime networks.
Figure of the Day
33% – Bridgewater’s Pure Alpha flagship surge in 2025.
The Justice Department has massively expanded its review of Jeffrey Epstein materials, disclosing millions of pages under scrutiny and accelerating internal efforts to process remaining files.
Full transcripts and video of former special counsel Jack Smith’s deposition were released, creating fresh political and legal scrutiny around high-profile prosecutions and congressional oversight.
Bullish
MegaCloud posts record cloud revenue, stock jumps
MegaCloud reported record cloud and AI services revenue for Q4, beating estimates and sending shares higher as enterprise demand for AI compute surges.
Trump Media’s plans to mint a shareholder token and partner with Crypto.com have driven volatile trading in DJT shares as the firm pursues crypto-linked products and shareholder perks.
Federal Reserve minutes show sharp disagreement among officials over December’s rate cut and the timing of future easing, underscoring policy uncertainty heading into 2026.
Bearish
National Retailer files for bankruptcy – bonds crash
A major national retailer filed for Chapter 11 after missing debt payments, triggering steep declines in its bonds and forcing urgent creditor talks.
The dollar ended a weak year, with analysts warning of further downside as markets price shifting Fed expectations and global flows, leaving currency-sensitive assets vulnerable.
Nvidia is scrambling to meet Chinese demand for its H200 chips while U.S. probes uncovered a multimillion-dollar smuggling ring that moved export‑controlled GPUs to China.
Regulatory Impact
Key policy moves: US tightens sanctions on Venezuela-linked tankers; federal courts order continued funding for the CFPB; Trump administration freezes Minnesota child-care funds amid fraud probes; first-term vetoes block bipartisan infrastructure measures; France plans ban on social media for under-15s.
Taiwan Semiconductor confirmed major technological progress, moving flagship 2nm chips into volume production as the industry race for advanced nodes accelerates.
China’s leadership used New Year messaging to highlight AI and chip accomplishments even as official data showed factory activity returning to growth after an extended slump.
Quote
We’re going to see some escalation now.
— Retired Brig. Gen. Blaine Holt
Base metals and precious metals finished a blockbuster year: copper surged on supply concerns while gold and silver closed strong despite late-session weakness.
Analysts warn that precious-metal rallies may face volatility as exchanges raise margins, even as some call the recent run-up a ‘calm before the storm’ for gold and silver.
Markets closed the year on strong footing as equities delivered double-digit gains while bond yields tumbled, reflecting shifting expectations for growth and central bank easing.
Warren Buffett’s departure as CEO marks the end of a legendary era at Berkshire Hathaway, prompting debate about succession, strategy and the firm’s future direction.
Labor-market data ended the year with unemployment claims near multi-year lows, a surprising sign of resilience that complicates the outlook for Fed cuts and economic momentum.
Mortgage rates eased to 2025 lows, offering relief for prospective buyers and signaling potential momentum for the housing market into 2026.
Meta moved to accelerate its AI push by acquiring Manus, while scrutiny of the startup’s China ties underscored geopolitical sensitivities around AI talent and deals.
U.S. courts have ordered continued funding and oversight for consumer watchdogs, even as legal battles test the administration’s approach to agency financing and enforcement.
Escalating strikes and counterclaims on both sides highlight renewed intensity in the Russia‑Ukraine fight, with attacks hitting energy infrastructure and prompting strong diplomatic reactions.
