HSBC feels gold could trade as high as $5,000 an ounce in the first half of 2026. At the same time, the bank warns investors to expect anything but a smooth ride to get there. So long-term optimism aside, gold’s still flashing considerable short-term risk.
In doing so, HSBC also lowered its average gold price estimate for 2026, despite laying out scenarios where the shiny yellow metal could rise dramatically.
For perspective, spot gold is currently trading around $4,580 per ounce, and a jump to $5,000 would be a nearly 10% increase (+$419.40/oz.).
When I last covered gold near the end of last year, it was trading at around $4,362 (rising nearly 5%).
As a result, the big bank isn’t predicting a straight-line rally; instead, it is predicting sharp moves, sudden reversals, and wider trading ranges.
For perspective, the SPDR Gold Shares ETF’s (a proxy for gold prices) current annualized 20-day volatility is at a considerably high 22.02%.
So the investor takeaway is less about the exact price target and more about the factors driving it. With such a wide range, markets are effectively bracing for change instead of clarity.
HSBC says gold could hit $5,000 in 2026, highlighting market volatility and deepening investor caution.Photo by picture alliance on Getty Images
HSBC’s $5000 gold price target for early 2026 sits alongside an unusually wide $3,950 to $5,050 range, underscoring a volatile market ahead.
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The bank is essentially mapping out a clear landscape where rallies and steep pullbacks coexist.
First half of 2026: Potential spike to $5,050 an ounce
Full-year 2026 average:$4,587 an ounce, slightly lower than their previous estimate
End of 2026: About $4,450 an ounce, which points to expected reversals
HSBC believes that the ongoing geopolitical risk and rising global debt levels will continue pushing investors to the safe-haven metal.
If that didn’t make you nervous, as of Q3 2025, global debt skyrocketed to nearly $346 trillion, nearly 310% of the world’s GDP, per the Institute of International Finance, as cited by Reuters.
At the same time, the bank balances optimism with restraint, saying extreme price levels could potentially trigger corrections, especially if geopolitical tensions ease or interest-rate cuts slow down.
HSBC isn’t the only big bank floating eye-popping numbers.
Across Wall Street, multiple major banks have been sketching out gold scenarios that will have sounded remarkably lofty just a year ago.
Bank of America: $5,000/oz. in 2026 (average $4,400), on the back of deficits/debt, along with pressure for lower rates in keeping gold supported (Source:Reuters)
JPMorgan: Q4 2026 average $5,055/oz., calling gold a top-conviction play on Fed cuts, backed by steady investor and central-bank buying (Source:Reuters)
Goldman Sachs: $4,900/oz. by Dec 2026 (base case); flags strong upside if private investors in gold broaden (Source:Reuters)
Morgan Stanley: $4,500/oz. by mid-2026, spearheaded by ETF demand and central-bank buying on the back of ongoing uncertainty (Source:Reuters)
UBS: Mid-2026 target bumped to $4,500/oz., led by expected rate cuts, along with geopolitical risk and healthy central-bank/ETF demand (Source:Reuters)
Gold had a historic 2025, with prices surging over 60%, the yellow metal’s biggest annual rise since 1979.
The biggest drivers of the rally included a potent mix of central-bank buying, safe-haven demand, and a market that’s conditioned to expect lower rates.
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ETF investors loaded up on the shiny metal, Bloomberg reported, with the World Gold Council saying that 2025 purchases jumped to 700 tonnes, the biggest annual buildout in history.
Also, the biggest luminaries in the investing world took notice. Legendary investor Ray Dalio recently weighed in on gold’s superb outperformance, according to Business Insider.
In doing so, Dalio also said that with gold’s rapid rise, we saw an erosion of fiat currency value.
He added that 2025’s stock market performance looked strong, since it was measured against a weakening dollar, wherein U.S. stocks actually dropped in value when measured in gold terms.
