JPMorgan just capped off a banner year with a stronger-than-expected fourth quarter, proving how profitable 2025 was for Wall Street’s largest bank.
Yet, looking forward, the outlook grows cloudier, with a turbulent political environment complicating the bank’s 2026 picture.
For the quarter ending December 31, JPMorgan reported adjusted earnings of $5.23 a share, beating street expectations of $5. Revenue clocked in at $46.7 billion, above forecasts of $46.2 billion. In all, the adjusted results put a bow on a year in which JPMorgan benefited from market volatility and associated heavy trading activity, a reasonable level of dealmaking, and strong client demand across its markets and wealth businesses.
Looking to the full year, momentum appeared greatest through the second and third quarters—not unusual for large banks — with the Federal Reserve’s three late-year rate cuts arriving a bit too late to either meaningfully boost earnings or squeeze margins. Still, the broader theme held. Large banks performed well in 2025’s high-rate, high-volatility environment, buoyed by elevated market interest and the onward march of asset prices.
On the consumer side, JPMorgan’s results continue to show relatively stable credit conditions. Spending has held up, delinquencies remain contained even as they’re ticking up slightly, and consumer banking remains one of the firm’s most reliable and material profit engines. Credit cards continue to generate outsized returns as borrowing costs remain high.
Over the weekend, President Donald Trump warned that credit-card issuers would be “breaking the law” if they failed to cap interest rates at 10% for one year, despite the absence of legislation or executive authority to impose such a limit. Banks were poised for a victory lap this week, but the comments triggered Monday’s sell-off in card-heavy firms.
Industry lobbying and legal challenges would likely blunt or delay any attempt to enforce a cap. Yet the episode shows how exposed banks remain to policy whiplash — and to the risk of politicized pressure on profitable business lines. With Trump publicly attacking regulatory agencies and the Federal Reserve, bank executives are being not-so-subtly encouraged to watch what they say about policy and the economy.
That tension is likely to hang over JPMorgan’s earnings call, no matter the adjusted beat. Simply put, solid fundamentals may not offer much protection when political risk runs this high.
Earlier this year, a senior JPMorgan strategist, Michael Cembalest, publicly acknowledged self-censoring a client presentation and redacting portions of a report out of concern for how criticism of policy might draw attention. It was a revealing admission that sent ripples across Wall Street. Months down the line, it now seems like a prime example of how, under Trump, political pressure can work whether direct or formal enforcement action comes or not. The administration continues to target perceived adversaries across business, media, and regulatory institutions.
For bank executives, the risk is becoming a political target, which can make caution look like the smart play even after delivering strong earnings. Whether a streak of strong earnings insulates executives from that chilling effect, or functions to attract White House scrutiny, is now the open question.
