We came across a bullish thesis on Cheniere Energy, Inc. on Nishant Chandra’s Substack. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on LNG. Cheniere Energy, Inc.’s share was trading at $193.69 as of Janaury 13th. LNG’s trailing and forward P/E were 10.80 and 13.81 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.
Europe has formally committed to eliminating all Russian pipeline gas and LNG imports by the end of 2027, marking a structural break in global energy flows rather than a temporary geopolitical response. The policy is framed as energy sovereignty in Brussels, but in practice it forces Europe to permanently replace roughly 40 billion cubic meters of annual Russian gas supply. This creates one of the largest and longest duration demand shifts the global energy market has ever seen. While consumers face higher volatility and elevated heating costs, a small group of LNG exporters is positioned to benefit disproportionately as Europe scrambles to secure reliable, non-Russian supply for the next decade.
Cheniere Energy stands out as the primary beneficiary of this realignment. As the largest U.S. LNG exporter, Cheniere already supplies approximately 20 percent of Europe’s LNG imports through its Louisiana and Texas export terminals. That share is set to increase meaningfully as Europe’s ban becomes fully effective. Replacing Russian gas requires roughly 500 fully loaded LNG cargoes per year, and once Cheniere’s next wave of liquefaction trains comes online in 2026 and 2027, the company will have capacity to ship more than 600 cargoes annually. This places Cheniere in a uniquely advantaged position to meet incremental European demand without relying on greenfield infrastructure.
The financial implications are significant. Long term contracts, constrained global LNG supply, and structurally higher European prices support sustained cash flow generation well beyond the current cycle. Sell side analysts have begun reflecting this shift, with some price targets implying 50 to 70 percent upside from current levels over the next 18 to 24 months. Importantly, investors are paid to wait through a growing dividend, making Cheniere a leveraged but relatively de risked way to participate in the largest energy rerouting in modern history.
Previously, we covered a bullish thesis on Valaris Limited by Alpha Ark in February 2025, which highlighted fleet scarcity, rising offshore day rates, and asset values trading far below replacement cost. The company’s stock price has appreciated by approximately 16.64% since our coverage. This is because the thesis has partially played out, supported by tightening rig supply and improving fundamentals. Nishant Chandra shares a similar thesis but emphasizes LNG driven energy rerouting and contract backed cash flows.
