Bitcoin(CRYPTO: BTC) is the world’s largest cryptocurrency. In fact, its market capitalization of more than $1.9 trillion accounts for more than half of the value of all crypto in circulation.
Ark Investment Management was founded by seasoned technology investor Cathie Wood, and the firm issued a forecast last year suggesting that Bitcoin could hit $1.5 million per coin by 2030, driven by three primary factors. However, in an interview with CNBC in November, Wood actually revised Ark’s forecast down to $1.2 million, because new innovations like stablecoins are capturing some of the value she initially assigned to Bitcoin.
Nevertheless, that still implies a potential upside of 1,159% from Bitcoin’s recent price of $95,300 per coin. So should investors buy it now?
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Bitcoin delivered a staggering 22,100% return during the past decade, outperforming every major asset class, whether stocks, real estate, or precious metals.
With that said, Bitcoin isn’t very useful. It isn’t widely accepted in exchange for goods and services, nor does it play a role in a major payment network like XRP does, for example.
In fact, as I mentioned, Cathie Wood revised her 2030 Bitcoin price target down recently because stablecoins have become so popular. They offer a way to send money around the world instantly with practically zero volatility, and in 2024, they were used to process an annualized $15.6 trillion in payment volume. That’s more than both Visa and Mastercard processed.
Bitcoin isn’t getting anywhere near as much traction on that front. Instead, most of its value comes from the investment community, which increasingly recognizes it as a store of value because of its unique qualities.
Bitcoin is fully decentralized, so it can’t be manipulated by any person, company, or government. It also has a capped supply of 21 million coins — most of which are already in circulation — creating the perception of scarcity. Finally, it’s built on a secure and transparent system of record called the blockchain.
Ark Invest thinks Bitcoin’s value proposition runs even deeper. The firm points to six factors that could fuel further upside by 2030, including three primary factors that could do most of the heavy lifting:
Institutional investment: Ark believes the widespread availability of spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) will boost participation in Bitcoin investing. By 2030, the firm predicts institutional investors will have around 6.5% of their assets parked in Bitcoin, equating to about $13 trillion.
Emerging market currency: Bitcoin is more accessible than most other financial assets because anyone with an internet connection can buy it. Therefore, Ark predicts people in developing countries will use it to hedge against any inflation caused by the devaluation of their domestic currencies.
Digital gold: Finally, the total value of all above-ground gold reserves currently stands at about $32 trillion. Ark believes Bitcoin can capture 60% of that, or $19 trillion.
According to the financial modeling put forward by Wood and Ark, these catalysts could propel Bitcoin to about $1.2 million per coin by 2030.
Bitcoin ended 2025 with a loss of 6%, while gold soared by an eye-popping 64% for the year. Therefore, although a growing number of investors might consider Bitcoin a legitimate store of value, many of them still flock to the shiny yellow metal in the face of political and economic uncertainty. If this disconnect continues, Bitcoin might lose its perception as digital gold, which would deal a serious blow to one of Ark’s primary drivers of future potential upside.
This might also affect the institutional investment angle, because spot ETFs — which collectively manage about $120 billion in assets right now — will only experience further demand if Bitcoin is expected to increase in value.
Based on Bitcoin’s fully diluted supply of 21 million coins, a price of $1.2 million per coin would translate to a market capitalization of $25.2 trillion. That would make Bitcoin five times more valuable than the world’s largest company, Nvidia, which is currently worth $4.5 trillion. For some further perspective, the output of the entire U.S. economy was about $31 trillion last year.
I’m not convinced Ark’s target is realistic, especially in light of last year’s performance. If one of the primary reasons to buy Bitcoin is because it’s a digital version of gold, then I would suggest buying gold or a gold ETF instead, because the shiny yellow metal has proven it can outperform the cryptocurrency by a wide margin when it really matters.
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Anthony Di Pizio has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin, Mastercard, Nvidia, Visa, and XRP. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
