Debate is raging over whether President Donald Trump’s plan to reboot Venezuela’s oil production will succeed. While fans argue there is simply too much money at stake for major oil companies to ignore, naysayers point to a decade of “once-bitten, twice-shy” failures that have left E&P balance sheets scarred.
However, we are about to get a definitive look at whether we’re truly on the cusp of a Venezuela oil rush. Energy service giants Halliburton (HAL) and SLB (SLB) — the “gold standard” for global oilfield infrastructure — are set to report quarterly earnings on Wednesday, January 21, and Friday, January 23, respectively.
I’ve seen many crude oil pops and drops since I began investing back in the early 1990s, and decades of advising some of the largest mutual funds and hedge funds taught me that Wall Street considers these companies to be the ultimate bellwethers; they won’t just witness a Venezuela overhaul — they will build it.
It wouldn’t be surprising if management weighed in on the scale, scope, and “boots on the ground” reality of this emerging opportunity during their respective earnings calls.
“We left only because of the U.S. sanctions that were put in place and have effectively been evaluating how to return ever since,” said Halliburton Chief Executive Officer Jeff Miller, according to the Wall Street Journal.
We have already seen the lines drawn in the sand. ExxonMobil (XOM) CEO Darren Woods recently labeled Venezuela “uninvestable” without radical legal reforms — a stance that drew sharp fire from President Trump, who countered that if the majors won’t play, “wildcatters” will.
Major oil services companies could see a wave of sales growth tied to Venezuela in 2026 and 2027.Shutterstock ·Shutterstock
In contrast, Chevron (CVX) — which maintains a strategic footprint via its joint venture with Petróleos de Venezuela, PDVSA — has signaled a more opportunistic path. Chevron suggests it could double production with relatively simple infrastructure “tweaks,” despite U.S. sanctions last summer that throttled its output from 250,000 barrels per day (bpd) down to just 100,000 bpd, according to Reuters.
For the service giants, this isn’t just a policy debate; it’s a massive revenue event. Halliburton (HAL) excels at the “dirty work” required here: reviving aging, shut-in wells and deploying artificial lifts to move heavy crude from the shallow, sandy Orinoco Belt. Meanwhile, SLB (SLB) brings the high-tech edge with reservoir mapping and advanced well-completion technology.
But the scars of history run deep. Both firms were burned when Venezuela nationalized its oil industry in 1976, during thepresidency of Carlos Andrés Pérez, and again in 2007 under Hugo Chávez.
Today, the stakes are literal: Halliburton is still owed $754 million, and SLB is owed $469 million, according to Morgan Stanley. Whether analysts grill management on these “zombie receivables” during the Q&A will be the ultimate test of investor confidence in a 2026 reboot.
Energy stocks spent much of 2025 in the red as crude oil prices slumped, dragging down revenue and profit growth. OPEC+ appeared to make it a mission to test the floor for Texas shale, ramping production to challenge the profitability of the Permian Basin.
The economic disparity between the two regions is staggering. According to the Dallas Federal Reserve, the average breakeven for a new well in the Permian is roughly $61 per barrel. In contrast, Saudi Aramco’s latest Databook reveals an industry-leading upstream lifting cost of just $3.50 per barrel, with total production cash costs — including development — sitting well under $10.
Still, the sector found its footing in September and stocks rallied sharply higher as President Trump’s “Venezuela Reboot” narrative began to rattle sabers. The standout performers embraced by fund managers and bargain-hunting individual investors weren’t the E&P companies themselves, but the service providers.
While shares in major E&P play ExxonMobil (XOM) have gained roughly 15%, the “picks and shovels” plays have dominated. Since September 30, Halliburton (HAL) has surged 32% and SLB (SLB) has climbed 36%, as the market begins to price in a 2026 infrastructure supercycle. These gains haven’t been limited to the giants; a host of mid- and small-cap energy service stocks have rallied in tandem, signaling a broad bet on a global production shift.
Halliburton has already struck an optimistic tone on returning to Venezuela. Unlike exploration companies, its equipment and personnel can be rapidly moved in and out of areas, depending on where the profits are greatest.
“Venezuela is significant; it has the largest proven oil reserves in the world. And so it is clearly of interest to many operators, some small, some big,” CEO Miller told the Financial Times. “I think that an impact can be made fairly quickly by repairing the wells that are there.”
Wall Street agrees and has largely been upgrading SLB and Halliburton ahead of a Venezuela oil ramp.
Goldman Sachs analyst Neil Mehta boosted their SLB price target to $49 from $43, partly due to the potential for revenue in Venezuela, according to TheFly. Mehta has a 4.7-star rating on TipRanks. Bank of America is similarly bullish. Its analysts have a price target of $50.
Wall Street is also a fan of Halliburton. On January 14, Goldman Sachs lifted its Halliburton stock price target to $35 from $29. Bank of America’s target was raised to $36 from $30.
Whether those targets go higher will hinge on what SLB and Halliburton executives say on their earnings calls this week. If they provide concrete numbers around the potential to help accelerate Venezuela’s oil production, analysts may be forced to once again boost their outlook.
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