Trucking capacity has been steadily exiting the market over the past couple of years. These exits, however, came on the heels of the massive COVID-era oversupply, cushioning their impact on the market. With capacity continuing to tighten going into 2026, the industry will start to feel the effects of this long-term constriction.
Underneath the day-to-day, capacity is being trimmed in ways that have not always shown up in weekly rate charts due to the market’s highly saturated starting point. Fleets continue to quietly close up shop, while others cut their numbers. At the same time, new equipment investments are being delayed and financing remains tight. The result is a market that still feels loose but is not built for shocks.
This year, carriers will once again find themselves in a position of relative power. This not only allows companies to secure higher rates, it also gives them the opportunity to make decisions designed to protect their networks and future cash flow. During this time, carriers will be able to prioritize working with shippers who have proven their relational value during the downturn.
Shippers should understand how carriers decide who gets trucks when the market turns, as well as how they can make sure they are on the short list when it does.
While the most high-profile – or poorly handled – carrier closures often make headlines, not every exit attracts attention. Many carriers simply stop renewing their authority, sell their equipment and wind down after one more season of thin margins. Each time that happens, the market loses more trucks.
Over the past couple of years, carrier exits have looked more like a slow erosion of capacity than a dramatic tightening. As this trend continues, however, disruptions will start to expose how little slack is left.
Less slack: Fewer extra trucks are sitting around waiting for a load.
Faster flip to tight: A weather week, a compliance change, or a seasonal pop hits harder.
Carrier selection gets stricter: Freight still moves, but some shippers are prioritized over others.
If a shipper relies on spot coverage as their “plan,” that is essentially betting that extra capacity will always be available at the exact moment they need it. That is the bet that fails first in a tightening market.
It is also important to note that the market does not need mass bankruptcies to tighten. It also tightens when healthy fleets stop expanding. Many operators are shifting from growth to discipline and running lean to protect margins. When that mindset spreads, capacity can become more fragile.
Parked equipment: Older tractors get sidelined instead of rebuilt.
Lean dispatching: Fewer trucks held for surge capacity.
Conservative hiring: Fleets avoid adding seats they cannot keep filled.
Replacement-only budgets: Buy what you must, skip what you can.
When fleets pull back on new trucks, the market does not feel it immediately. It can become apparent later when demand stabilizes and the market realizes the replacement pipeline is thin.
When capacity tightens, carriers regain a sense of control that they lack in looser markets. Given the freedom to choose their partners, carriers ask questions like: “Where do we get paid cleanly? Where do our drivers lose the least time? Where do we avoid claims, chaos, and surprises?”
Detention patterns: who burns driver hours and shrugs
Payment behavior: late pay, short pay, disputed accessorials
Facility experience: unsafe yards, no appointments, broken check-in processes
Tender integrity: last-minute changes
Market behavior: who dropped partners the moment the spot market got cheaper
When demand returns, carriers do not pour their energy into rebuilding burned relationships. They run their best freight with the customers they already trust.
Think of carrier allocation like a scorecard. Rates matter, but they are only one line item.
FactorWhat “good” looks likeWhat breaks trust fastTime at shipper/receiverPayment qualityConsistencyNetwork fitOperational clarityRelationship history
If shippers want priority coverage, they should build their operations to score well before the market tightens. It is impossible to outbid a broken process forever.
This means working to fix dentation at the source by tracking dwell times, setting real targets, and adjusting processes. Carriers notice when shippers actually make improvements. Payments matter, too. Fast, predictable, and simple wins every time.
Shippers should commit to their carrier partners through market cycles. The shippers who stay steady when things are slow are the ones who get reliable trucks when capacity tightens. Give real lead time—an 80% accurate forecast is far better than silence. Finally, build flexibility into appointments. Tight windows don’t enforce discipline, they just create missed service and frustration.
MigWay is built for shippers who want control, not surprises. The company runs an asset-based fleet with 300 trucks and 500 trailers, supported by 24/7 in-house dispatch, live tracking, and zero outsourcing.
For shippers reviewing their 2026 lane strategy, Migway can help tighten up execution now, before the market forces it.
Get a lane check: what breaks first when capacity tightens?
Build a coverage plan: core carriers, backups, and surge options.
