Robinhood (NASDAQ:
HOOD) and partner Susquehanna International Group completed their acquisition
of MIAXdx today (Wednesday), purchasing 90% of the derivatives platform from
Miami International Holdings for an undisclosed sum.
The move was intended to help the retail trading
platform become independent from Kalshi, currently the largest provider of
event-based contracts. However, the latest data show that the two firms remain
strongly dependent on each other.
Robinhood Controls Half of
Kalshi’s Trading Volume
Robinhood
has been driving more than 50% of Kalshi’s total trading volume since launching
event contracts in March 2025. In Q2 2025, Robinhood users traded approximately
$1 billion in contracts on Kalshi, representing over half of Kalshi’s $1.87
billion quarterly volume during that period. By September, analysts estimated
Robinhood accounted for roughly one-third of Kalshi’s daily volume.
The
partnership has been profitable for both companies. Kalshi and Robinhood split
a 2-cent per contract fee evenly, generating approximately $10 million in
revenue for Robinhood during Q2 2025 alone. Kalshi recorded $23.8 billion in
total trading volume during 2025 and opened 2026 with $291 million in daily
notional volume on January 1.
Robinhood
stated it will continue offering Kalshi contracts alongside products from its
own exchange when MIAXdx begins operations later in 2026. However, owning
exchange infrastructure allows Robinhood to capture full fee structures rather
than splitting revenue with Kalshi, potentially doubling earnings from
prediction markets according to Bernstein analysts.
Migration Timeline Remains
Unclear as Legal Challenges Mount
The deal
closes just one day after Robinhood filed court papers defending its continued
access to Kalshi’s exchange, arguing that losing Kalshi would cause
“severe disruption” to its business. That filing revealed Robinhood
users have traded over 100 million sports-related event contracts in Wisconsin
alone, with “most of that volume” coming through Kalshi’s platform.
The
transaction gives Robinhood control of a CFTC-licensed Designated Contract
Market and Derivatives Clearing Organization authorized to list and clear fully
collateralized futures, options on futures, and swaps. Miami International
Holdings keeps a 10% stake in the exchange and clearinghouse.
The MIAXdx
exchange is expected to begin operations in 2026, though Robinhood has not
specified when it will start migrating users to contracts listed on its own
platform rather than Kalshi’s. The platform already holds CFTC licenses as a
Designated Contract Market and Derivatives Clearing Organization, which could
accelerate the launch timeline.
“The
purchase of MIAXdx accelerates our investment in the prediction markets and
improves our position to deliver a better experience for customers in this
growing asset class,” said JB Mackenzie, VP and GM of Futures and
International at Robinhood.
Prediction
markets have become Robinhood’s
fastest-growing revenue source since debut, with management projecting a
potential $300 million annual run rate. The platform has traded more than 9
billion contracts across over 1 million users.
State Regulators Continue
Crackdown Despite Federal Approvals
The
acquisition comes as multiple state
regulators have
challenged prediction market operators, with ten states filing complaints
against Kalshi alleging the contracts constitute illegal gambling. The Ho-Chunk
Nation lawsuit in Wisconsin prompted Robinhood’s recent court filing defending
its Kalshi partnership.
Robinhood
has expanded into
sports-linked contracts, drawing comparisons to sportsbooks while operating under CFTC
regulation. Federal courts have so far sided with exchanges operating under
CFTC oversight, though state-level challenges continue to mount.
Robinhood
shares climbed 11% in November when the acquisition was first
announced,
reflecting investor confidence in the fintech’s ability to scale prediction
markets into a core business line alongside equities, options, and
cryptocurrency.
MIAX Retains Exposure
Through Minority Stake
Miami
International Holdings operates eight exchanges including MIAX Options, MIAX
Pearl, and international venues like The Bermuda Stock Exchange. The company
also owns Dorman Trading, a full-service Futures Commission Merchant.
“Our
sale of MIAXdx reaffirms our strategy of partnering with industry leaders to
accelerate our growth strategies and we’re pleased to gain exposure to the
growing prediction market through our retained equity stake in the
exchange,” said Thomas P. Gallagher, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
of MIAX.
“MIAX
is laser focused on organic growth opportunities within our core exchanges and
believe the sale of 90% of MIAXdx unlocks significant value for our
shareholders.”
The
exchange operator maintains access to prediction market growth through its
minority stake while freeing resources to expand options and equities trading
infrastructure.
Robinhood’s
move follows CEO Vlad
Tenev’s vision to
build a platform managing wealth, investments, and family finances across
generations, with tokenized assets and emerging products playing a central role
alongside traditional brokerage services.
This article was written by Damian Chmiel at www.financemagnates.com.
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