Gold has
just delivered one of the most powerful runs in its modern history, and the key
questions now are how high gold can go, and whether gold
will hit $5,000 per ounce. The yellow metal is still in a clear uptrend,
even after setting fresh all-time highs and pulling back slightly.
Over the
past year gold surged about 65%, and in the first three weeks of
2026 it has already added roughly 12%, briefly testing the $4,888
area per ounce and setting new historical records. Today, on Thursday 22
January 2026, gold is only slightly lower, trading around $4,827
dollars, which in my technical view looks far more like a pause inside a
structural bull market than the start of a top.
In this
article, I examine the XAU/USD chart and explain why the new gold price
forecast from Goldman Sachs points to a target of $5,400 per ounce.
At the
core, why gold is going up comes down to three overlapping
forces:
- structural
demand, - macro
hedging, - strong
technical uptrend that keeps attracting trend followers.
From a
fundamental side, a major global investment bank – Goldman Sachs – has just
raised its end‑2026 gold price forecast from $4,900 to
$5,400 per ounce, explicitly citing private‑sector and emerging‑market
central bank diversification into gold as the main driver.
The bank
assumes these private diversification buyers, who hedge “global policy risks”
and have driven the upside surprise, will not liquidate in 2026, which
effectively lifts the whole path of its price profile.
At the same
time, it expects Western ETF holdings to increase as the Federal
Reserve cuts rates and sees central bank purchases averaging
around 60 tonnes in 2026, as reserve managers continue
shifting out of pure dollar exposure and into bullion.
That
institutional view matches how professional market analysts describe the
current phase. Rania Gule, Senior Market Analyst at XS.com MENA calls this
a “delicate phase” that reflects a fragile balance
between geopolitical, economic and monetary factors, yet stresses that gold
has managed to recover early‑year dips and hold above $4,800 dollars, even
approaching $4,925 dollars despite a slowdown in momentum.
In her
view, this is not a mere short‑term spike but a sign that investors
increasingly see gold as a strategic asset to be bought on dips,
even when the classic safe‑haven narrative is temporarily less intense.
Gold Technical Analysis:
Support Levels and Trend
On my
chart, the message is straightforward: gold is in a strong, dynamic
uptrend, and recent price action fits cleanly into a bullish structure.
Gold has
temporarily met resistance around $4,850, but underneath that
ceiling sits an entire ladder of supports that can absorb a technical
correction. The first short‑term support on my chart is
the gap area around $4,650 between Tuesday’s and Wednesday’s
sessions. Slightly lower, I mark $4,550 as the next key level – the
zone of highs tested at the end of December and earlier in October.
Gold price technical analysis. Source: Tradingview.com
The main
support zone for me right now is around $4,360, where price currently
overlaps with the 50‑day exponential moving average. This is the
area I consider the primary defense line for the existing
uptrend.
If that $4,360
region were to break cleanly, my analysis points toward a deeper pullback into
the $3,900–4,000 band per ounce, a psychologically important round
area that also coincides with the volatility envelopes drawn around price in
early November.
Below that,
my chart shows the 200‑day moving average near $3,800 , which is
the classic line separating a bull market from a bear market. This means that,
in theory, gold has quite a lot of room to correct lower without breaking
its structural uptrend: the metal could fall several hundred dollars, find
support around the 200‑day line, and still be technically bullish.
If, and
only if, that $3,800 region failed, the next historical support would sit
near $3,450, the old resistance zone that capped rallies for months
between April and August of last year.
Despite
this space for correction, I remain a structural bull on the gold chart.
In my view, deeper and sustained declines below those major supports are
unlikely. And even if a sharp flush occurred, it would probably be just that,
a temporary washout of excessive speculation and leveraged longs,
and an opportunity to re‑enter at more attractive prices.
What H4 Says About the Gold
Trend?
Zooming
into the medium‑term picture, the intraday structure also supports the bullish
case. Looking at gold on a four‑hour chart, Łukasz Stefanik, a
financial analyst at XTB, sees a “very strong, dynamic uptrend”,
noting that price has broken above prior highs and even exceeded the 161.8%
extension of the last corrective decline.
The latest
upward impulse pushed gold into the $4,880–4,890 zone, where the
first more serious supply reaction appeared, but this leg is clearly larger
than previous corrections – a classic sign that the demand side still
dominates.
Using an
Overbalance‑style approach, the key conclusion is that as long as gold holds
above the lower boundary of the 1:1 geometry around $4,641 and the
nearby support zone around $4,680, the base scenario
remains continuation of the uptrend.
How High Can Gold Go – And
Will It Hit 5,000?
The
raised forecast from Goldman Sachs – $5,400 per ounce by the end of
2026 – provides a concrete fundamental anchor. Their scenario
assumes that:
- Private‑sector diversification
buyers continue to hedge global policy risks using gold and
do not liquidate en masse in 2026. - Western gold ETFs start to
rebuild holdings as
the Federal Reserve cuts rates, reducing the carry cost of holding
bullion. - Emerging‑market central banks
keep buying around 60 tonnes per month, further tightening the physical market.
In other
words, my gold price prediction for the current cycle is that
gold does hit $5,000 per ounce, and that the $5,400 area
outlined in the investment bank’s 2026 forecast is a reasonable, if ambitious,
extension of the current trend.
The path is
unlikely to be straight; corrections into the 4,650–4,360 corridor would be
normal, but the structural drivers and the chart both point higher.
Please also check the previous gold price articles written by me:
Gold Price Roadmap for
2026
Putting it
all together, the gold price prediction from my perspective
looks like this:
- Short term: Gold is consolidating beneath
resistance around $4,850–4,900 after an explosive rally. As
long as price holds above $4,680–4,641, the base case is a
continuation of the uptrend, with shallow corrections being bought. - Correction zones on my chart: First supports sit
around $4,650 (gap area) and $4,550 (December/October
highs). Deeper but still healthy corrections would target $4,360 (50‑day
EMA, my main support) and then the $3,900–4,000 band.
The $3,800 area (200‑day MA) is the structural bull/bear
line; $3,450 is the last‑ditch historical floor. - Upside potential: Provided those key supports
hold, my base case is that gold tests 5,000 dollars in
this cycle and, in line with the 5,400 institutional target, can stretch
further if central banks and private hedgers maintain their current pace
of buying and the Fed delivers rate cuts.
In
short, why gold is going up is that it has become a strategic
macro hedge in a world of policy uncertainty, and how high gold can go is
now framed not by 2,000 or 3,000 but by 5,000 and beyond.
According
to my technical analysis, the trend is still clearly up, support layers are
well defined, and the combination of technicals and institutional forecasts
makes a $5,000–5,400 scenario for 2026 entirely credible.
FAQ: Gold Price Prediction
2026
Why is gold price going up
today?
Gold is
going up due to structural demand from central banks, private-sector
diversification hedging global policy risks, and anticipated Federal Reserve
rate cuts. Goldman Sachs raised its end-2026 gold price forecast to $5,400 per
ounce, citing that private diversification buyers “hedge global policy
risks and have driven the upside surprise” and will not liquidate in 2026.
How high can gold go?
According
to my technical analysis and Goldman Sachs forecast, gold can reach $5,400
dollars per ounce by end-2026. My gold price prediction expects $5,000 to be
tested mid-year as the Fed cuts rates by 50 basis points and emerging-market
central banks maintain 60 tonnes per month buying pace.
Will gold hit 5,000 per
ounce?
Yes, gold
will hit $5,000 per ounce in my view. I remain a structural bull on the gold
chart and view any pullback toward $4,650-4,360 as a buying opportunity before
testing $5,000.
What is the gold price
forecast for 2026?
My gold
price forecast for 2026: test of $5,000 mid-year, potential move to $5,400 by
year-end per Goldman Sachs target.
Gold has
just delivered one of the most powerful runs in its modern history, and the key
questions now are how high gold can go, and whether gold
will hit $5,000 per ounce. The yellow metal is still in a clear uptrend,
even after setting fresh all-time highs and pulling back slightly.
Over the
past year gold surged about 65%, and in the first three weeks of
2026 it has already added roughly 12%, briefly testing the $4,888
area per ounce and setting new historical records. Today, on Thursday 22
January 2026, gold is only slightly lower, trading around $4,827
dollars, which in my technical view looks far more like a pause inside a
structural bull market than the start of a top.
In this
article, I examine the XAU/USD chart and explain why the new gold price
forecast from Goldman Sachs points to a target of $5,400 per ounce.
At the
core, why gold is going up comes down to three overlapping
forces:
- structural
demand, - macro
hedging, - strong
technical uptrend that keeps attracting trend followers.
From a
fundamental side, a major global investment bank – Goldman Sachs – has just
raised its end‑2026 gold price forecast from $4,900 to
$5,400 per ounce, explicitly citing private‑sector and emerging‑market
central bank diversification into gold as the main driver.
The bank
assumes these private diversification buyers, who hedge “global policy risks”
and have driven the upside surprise, will not liquidate in 2026, which
effectively lifts the whole path of its price profile.
At the same
time, it expects Western ETF holdings to increase as the Federal
Reserve cuts rates and sees central bank purchases averaging
around 60 tonnes in 2026, as reserve managers continue
shifting out of pure dollar exposure and into bullion.
That
institutional view matches how professional market analysts describe the
current phase. Rania Gule, Senior Market Analyst at XS.com MENA calls this
a “delicate phase” that reflects a fragile balance
between geopolitical, economic and monetary factors, yet stresses that gold
has managed to recover early‑year dips and hold above $4,800 dollars, even
approaching $4,925 dollars despite a slowdown in momentum.
In her
view, this is not a mere short‑term spike but a sign that investors
increasingly see gold as a strategic asset to be bought on dips,
even when the classic safe‑haven narrative is temporarily less intense.
Gold Technical Analysis:
Support Levels and Trend
On my
chart, the message is straightforward: gold is in a strong, dynamic
uptrend, and recent price action fits cleanly into a bullish structure.
Gold has
temporarily met resistance around $4,850, but underneath that
ceiling sits an entire ladder of supports that can absorb a technical
correction. The first short‑term support on my chart is
the gap area around $4,650 between Tuesday’s and Wednesday’s
sessions. Slightly lower, I mark $4,550 as the next key level – the
zone of highs tested at the end of December and earlier in October.
Gold price technical analysis. Source: Tradingview.com
The main
support zone for me right now is around $4,360, where price currently
overlaps with the 50‑day exponential moving average. This is the
area I consider the primary defense line for the existing
uptrend.
If that $4,360
region were to break cleanly, my analysis points toward a deeper pullback into
the $3,900–4,000 band per ounce, a psychologically important round
area that also coincides with the volatility envelopes drawn around price in
early November.
Below that,
my chart shows the 200‑day moving average near $3,800 , which is
the classic line separating a bull market from a bear market. This means that,
in theory, gold has quite a lot of room to correct lower without breaking
its structural uptrend: the metal could fall several hundred dollars, find
support around the 200‑day line, and still be technically bullish.
If, and
only if, that $3,800 region failed, the next historical support would sit
near $3,450, the old resistance zone that capped rallies for months
between April and August of last year.
Despite
this space for correction, I remain a structural bull on the gold chart.
In my view, deeper and sustained declines below those major supports are
unlikely. And even if a sharp flush occurred, it would probably be just that,
a temporary washout of excessive speculation and leveraged longs,
and an opportunity to re‑enter at more attractive prices.
What H4 Says About the Gold
Trend?
Zooming
into the medium‑term picture, the intraday structure also supports the bullish
case. Looking at gold on a four‑hour chart, Łukasz Stefanik, a
financial analyst at XTB, sees a “very strong, dynamic uptrend”,
noting that price has broken above prior highs and even exceeded the 161.8%
extension of the last corrective decline.
The latest
upward impulse pushed gold into the $4,880–4,890 zone, where the
first more serious supply reaction appeared, but this leg is clearly larger
than previous corrections – a classic sign that the demand side still
dominates.
Using an
Overbalance‑style approach, the key conclusion is that as long as gold holds
above the lower boundary of the 1:1 geometry around $4,641 and the
nearby support zone around $4,680, the base scenario
remains continuation of the uptrend.
How High Can Gold Go – And
Will It Hit 5,000?
The
raised forecast from Goldman Sachs – $5,400 per ounce by the end of
2026 – provides a concrete fundamental anchor. Their scenario
assumes that:
- Private‑sector diversification
buyers continue to hedge global policy risks using gold and
do not liquidate en masse in 2026. - Western gold ETFs start to
rebuild holdings as
the Federal Reserve cuts rates, reducing the carry cost of holding
bullion. - Emerging‑market central banks
keep buying around 60 tonnes per month, further tightening the physical market.
In other
words, my gold price prediction for the current cycle is that
gold does hit $5,000 per ounce, and that the $5,400 area
outlined in the investment bank’s 2026 forecast is a reasonable, if ambitious,
extension of the current trend.
The path is
unlikely to be straight; corrections into the 4,650–4,360 corridor would be
normal, but the structural drivers and the chart both point higher.
Please also check the previous gold price articles written by me:
Gold Price Roadmap for
2026
Putting it
all together, the gold price prediction from my perspective
looks like this:
- Short term: Gold is consolidating beneath
resistance around $4,850–4,900 after an explosive rally. As
long as price holds above $4,680–4,641, the base case is a
continuation of the uptrend, with shallow corrections being bought. - Correction zones on my chart: First supports sit
around $4,650 (gap area) and $4,550 (December/October
highs). Deeper but still healthy corrections would target $4,360 (50‑day
EMA, my main support) and then the $3,900–4,000 band.
The $3,800 area (200‑day MA) is the structural bull/bear
line; $3,450 is the last‑ditch historical floor. - Upside potential: Provided those key supports
hold, my base case is that gold tests 5,000 dollars in
this cycle and, in line with the 5,400 institutional target, can stretch
further if central banks and private hedgers maintain their current pace
of buying and the Fed delivers rate cuts.
In
short, why gold is going up is that it has become a strategic
macro hedge in a world of policy uncertainty, and how high gold can go is
now framed not by 2,000 or 3,000 but by 5,000 and beyond.
According
to my technical analysis, the trend is still clearly up, support layers are
well defined, and the combination of technicals and institutional forecasts
makes a $5,000–5,400 scenario for 2026 entirely credible.
FAQ: Gold Price Prediction
2026
Why is gold price going up
today?
Gold is
going up due to structural demand from central banks, private-sector
diversification hedging global policy risks, and anticipated Federal Reserve
rate cuts. Goldman Sachs raised its end-2026 gold price forecast to $5,400 per
ounce, citing that private diversification buyers “hedge global policy
risks and have driven the upside surprise” and will not liquidate in 2026.
How high can gold go?
According
to my technical analysis and Goldman Sachs forecast, gold can reach $5,400
dollars per ounce by end-2026. My gold price prediction expects $5,000 to be
tested mid-year as the Fed cuts rates by 50 basis points and emerging-market
central banks maintain 60 tonnes per month buying pace.
Will gold hit 5,000 per
ounce?
Yes, gold
will hit $5,000 per ounce in my view. I remain a structural bull on the gold
chart and view any pullback toward $4,650-4,360 as a buying opportunity before
testing $5,000.
What is the gold price
forecast for 2026?
My gold
price forecast for 2026: test of $5,000 mid-year, potential move to $5,400 by
year-end per Goldman Sachs target.
