Two in three Americans anticipate that upcoming tax law changes will affect them personally in 2026, yet a substantial share remain unclear on what the new rules actually mean for their finances, according to new survey findings.
The poll, commissioned by TaxSlayer and carried out by Talker Research, indicates that awareness of changes linked to the One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) – also referred to as the Working Families Tax Cut – is relatively high, but understanding is far more limited.
Of those surveyed, 46% said they were aware that new provisions under the OBBB are now in force. However, more than half of that group (56%) admitted they do not understand how the changes apply to their own tax situation.
The study suggests that while tax developments are on the radar for most people, fewer are taking proactive steps to learn about them.
Overall, 84% of respondents said they pay attention to shifts in tax law, but only 55% actively look into the specifics. Another 41% reported doing “little to no” research on tax changes.
Despite this knowledge gap, 67% believe the new rules will affect them on a personal level, and around one in five expects those effects to be substantial.
Respondents reported being most aware of changes tied to deductions for tips and overtime, the higher Child Tax Credit, and the removal of some credits related to energy efficiency and electric vehicles.
The survey also highlighted a wide range of confidence levels around tax literacy. While 59% felt they have a basic understanding of how income tax is calculated, only 16% of women and 25% of men described themselves as highly confident in their tax knowledge.
Younger adults were more likely to say they understand the system well: 31% of Gen Z participants claimed they understand taxes “very well”.
Seth Babb, head of consumer products at TaxSlayer, said: “What we are seeing is a clear gap between knowing tax laws are changing and understanding what those changes actually mean. That is why accessible, reliable guidance is so important right now.”
Despite the impending reforms, most respondents do not expect dramatic shifts in their immediate tax outcomes. More than half (52%) believe that both their liability and refund this year will be similar to last year’s amounts.
On average, taxpayers forecast a refund of $1,662, slightly under what they anticipated the previous year.
Refunds are largely viewed as a means to cover everyday obligations rather than discretionary purchases. Some 57% said they plan to put their refund towards essential spending such as card repayments, groceries, home maintenance, rent, savings or utilities.
