“When
the loudest person in the room is shouting ‘Buy,’ the smartest person is
usually looking for the ‘Exit’ sign,” says Constantinos Shakallis, CEO of
Scope Markets EU, warning that Wall Street’s aggressive gold price targets may
be creating exit liquidity for institutions rather than genuine investment
opportunities for retail traders.
Gold’s parabolic rise, 65%
in 2025 and 18% in just the first 26 days of 2026, has sparked what Shakallis
calls “a psychological contagion” across social media and trading
communities.
The
precious metal is dominating conversations on X feeds and Telegram groups, with
retail traders treating
Goldman Sachs’ $5,400 forecast and Bank of America’s $6,000 whisper number
like gospel. But the Cyprus-based brokerage executive, who watched his
country’s financial crisis unfold from the front row in 2013, sees troubling
parallels to past market manias.
“This
reminds me of something. I have seen this movie before and we in Cyprus had a
front-row seat for the previous sequels,” Shakallis wrote in a LinkedIn
post Sunday evening.
“It
was the ‘dot-com’ elevators of 1999, the ‘house prices only go up’ frenzy
before the 2008 crash, and the crypto-mania of 2021.”
Institutional Permission
Fuels Gold Retail FOMO
The rally
isn’t happening in a vacuum. As mentioned above, Goldman Sachs recently
raised its December 2026 target to $5,400, citing structural shifts in
private-sector diversification away from dollar assets.
Bank of
America analysts have gone further, with some strategists predicting
$6,000 by spring as
the “debasement trade” accelerates amid Federal Reserve independence
concerns and geopolitical tensions over Greenland.
These
institutional calls are giving retail investors what Shakallis describes as
“permission” to chase gold at $5,000, believing there’s still 20%
upside to capture.
But “history
shows that institutions often use this retail ‘buy-side liquidity’ to exit
their own massive positions without crashing the price,” Shakallis said.
The warning
comes as gold trading
volumes surge across platforms, with precious metals now accounting for the majority of CFD activity
at several major brokers.
Even crypto
exchanges like BingX report gold contracts generating over $500 million in
daily volume, a
testament to retail appetite for the rally.
When Safe Havens Act Like
Meme Coins
Shakallis
doesn’t mince words about the current market dynamics.
“How
can a market survive when its ‘safe haven’ starts behaving like a meme
coin?” he asked, comparing gold’s vertical price action to speculative
crypto assets rather than traditional store-of-value behavior.
The
technical picture supports his concern. Gold
is currently trading nearly 20% above its 200-day moving average, a level
that historically precedes mean reversion.
“A
market that goes parabolic is a market that is breaking. Gold rose 65% in 2025
and is already up 18% in the first 26 days of 2026. This is not ‘healthy
growth’ it is a vertical limit,” he wrote.
The last
time gold experienced this kind of euphoria, the aftermath was brutal. In
January 1980, gold hit a then-record $850 per ounce before losing 57% of its
value over the next two years. Investors who bought at the peak needed 28 years
just to break even.
Macro Catalysts Are Real,
But So Is the Rubber Band
For the
first time in 30 years, gold has surpassed U.S. Treasuries as the world’s
largest foreign reserve asset, with Poland, China, and India leading a central
bank buying spree five times higher than pre-2022 averages.
“They
are no longer just ‘investing’; they are insuring their reserves against a
world where fiat assets can be frozen or sanctioned at will,” he noted.
Yet even
with these structural tailwinds, the pace of gains raises sustainability
questions. Scope Prime,
the institutional arm of Shakallis’s parent company, recently adjusted gold
spreads in
response to CME margin requirement changes.
The Offloading Trap Awaits
Shakallis
admits he could be wrong. If the dollar truly collapses and geopolitical maps
get redrawn by force, gold might not just hit $6,000, it could become the only
functioning currency.
But his
core message remains cautionary.
“In
every cycle, high-profile bank targets can lure retail investors into high-risk
entries at the absolute top of the mountain, providing the exit liquidity the
big players need to take profits.”
This article was written by Damian Chmiel at www.financemagnates.com.
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