Gold price hit
a fresh all-time high of $5,311 per ounce on Wednesday, January 28, 2026,
marking its seventh consecutive session of gains. The yellow metal is trading
at $5,200.73 at time of writing, up 1.8% on the day, as the US dollar plunged
to four-year lows ahead of a crucial Federal Reserve meeting.
In this
article, I examine why gold is surging and checking what the XAU/USD chart
shows.
Gold Price Today: Historic
Rally Accelerates
Over just
seven trading sessions, gold has surged more than 15% – nearly
matching the entire 2025 return of the S&P 500 index. The metal is now
up 22% over the past month and has gained 91% since
the start of 2025.
This rally
has pushed gold nearly 30% above its 200-day exponential moving average,
a level that typically separates bull markets from bear trends. While prices
normally revert to their moving averages under normal market conditions, the
current geopolitical tensions and dollar weakness make timing any correction
extremely difficult.
Why Gold Is Surging?
Dollar Crisis Fuels
Safe-Haven Demand
The primary
driver behind today’s surge is the US dollar’s “crisis of confidence”
as it struggles near four-year lows. President Donald Trump’s comments
suggesting a “broad-based consensus within the White House to have a
weaker greenback going forward” accelerated dollar selling and sent gold
prices soaring.
“(Gold’s
rise) is due to the very strong indirect correlation with the dollar,”
explained Kelvin Wong, senior market analyst at OANDA. Dollar weakness makes
gold cheaper to purchase in other currencies, increasing global demand.
US consumer
confidence slumped to its lowest level in more than 11-1/2 years in January
amid mounting anxiety over a sluggish labor market and high prices. Trump also
announced he will soon reveal his pick for the next Federal Reserve chair,
predicting interest rates would decline under new leadership.
FOMC Meeting Creates
Additional Uncertainty
The Federal
Reserve’s two-day policy meeting, which concludes Wednesday, adds another layer
of uncertainty to markets. While the Fed is widely expected to hold rates
steady, investors are watching closely for any signals about the “neutral
rate” and future policy direction.
Trump’s
interference in Fed independence, combined with his preference for lower
interest rates and a weaker dollar, has created what market analysts describe
as a fundamental shift in how investors value gold. The metal is no longer
being priced primarily on yield considerations, but on its ability to hedge
systemic risks.
Systemic Shift Beyond
Cyclical Factors
According
to Linh Tran, Market Analyst at XS.com: “If one looks only at price
movements, this rally could be attributed to familiar factors such as
geopolitical tensions or interest rate expectations. However, when viewed
within the broader context of the global financial system, it becomes clear
that gold is rising not merely due to market anxiety, but also because
confidence in the global monetary–fiscal order is shifting toward a more
cautious stance.”
Tran
emphasizes this represents a structural change: “This does not appear to
be a short-lived shock, but rather a process of re-positioning gold’s role
within the system.”
Technical Analysis Shows Gold
Extended Rally
From my
technical perspective, the psychological $5,000 level was
broken without resistance and now serves as critical support. Additional
support levels include:
- $4,550
per ounce – December 2025 highs - $4,360
per ounce – October 2025 peaks
The 200-day
exponential moving average, which separates uptrends from downtrends, sits
approximately 30% below current prices, an extraordinary deviation that would
normally trigger profit-taking. However, the combination of geopolitical
tensions and dollar weakness has kept buyers active despite the extended rally.
Near-term
resistance for gold could be seen around $5,240 per ounce,
according to OANDA’s Wong. In the current price discovery phase, traditional
technical analysis provides limited guidance, though the momentum clearly
remains to the upside.
Follow
me on X for more gold market analysis and trading insights: @ChmielDk
Goldman Sachs Raises Gold
Price Prediction Target to $5,400
Major
investment banks continue raising their gold forecasts. Goldman
Sachs recently increased its 2026 gold price target by $500, from $4,900
to $5,400 per ounceby year-end, citing central bank
buying and private-sector diversification.
The bank’s
revised forecast assumes private diversification buyers who hedge “global
policy risks” will not liquidate holdings in 2026. Goldman also expects
Western ETF holdings to increase as the Federal Reserve cuts rates, while
emerging-market central banks continue purchasing around 60 tonnes
monthly [Finance Magnates].
Deutsche
Bank went even further, stating
Tuesday that gold could climb to $6,000 per ounce in 2026,
citing persistent investment demand as central banks and investors increase
allocations to non-dollar and tangible assets.
FAQ, Gold Price Analysis
What is the gold price
today?
Gold is
trading at $5,200.73 per ounce as of Wednesday, January 28, 2026, after hitting
an all-time high of $5,311 earlier in the session.
Why is gold surging?
Gold is
surging due to the US dollar plunging to four-year lows, Federal Reserve policy
uncertainty, Trump administration comments favoring a weaker dollar,
geopolitical tensions, and structural demand from central banks diversifying
away from dollar assets.
How high can gold go?
Goldman
Sachs forecasts gold reaching $5,400 per ounce by year-end 2026, while Deutsche
Bank suggests $6,000 is possible, citing persistent investment demand and
central bank buying.
Will gold continue rising?
The rally
shows strong momentum with seven consecutive sessions of gains totaling over
15%. As long as gold holds support above $5,000 and the dollar remains weak,
the uptrend is likely to continue, though significant profit-taking could
trigger short-term corrections.
Is now a good time to buy
gold?
While gold
has surged nearly 30% above its 200-day moving average – an extended level that
typically sees corrections – the structural drivers of dollar weakness, Fed
policy shifts, and geopolitical uncertainty remain intact. Investors should
consider their risk tolerance and consult financial advisors before making
investment decisions.
This article was written by Damian Chmiel at www.financemagnates.com.
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