March WTI crude oil (CLH26) today is up +0.62 (+0.99%), and March RBOB gasoline (RBH26) is up +0.0068 (+0.36%).
Crude oil and gasoline prices are moving higher today, with crude oil climbing to a 4-month high and gasoline climbing to a 2-month high. Crude prices jumped today after President Trump threatened another attack on Iran unless it negotiates a nuclear deal. Crude prices also found support from today’s weekly EIA report, which showed that crude inventories unexpectedly declined and gasoline supplies rose less than expected. The strength of the dollar today is limiting the upside in crude prices.
Crude oil prices jumped today after President Trump said in a social media post that he wants Iran to come to the table and negotiate a “fair and equitable deal with No Nuclear Weapons.” He warned Iran that time is running out to make a deal with the US, noting that a fleet of US warships entering the region is ready to complete their mission “with speed and violence.” A US attack on Iran could disrupt oil supplies from OPEC’s fourth-largest producer.
Crude oil also has support after Russia threw cold water on hopes of a breakthrough in peace talks with Ukraine, after the Kremlin said the “territorial issue” remains unresolved with Ukraine, and there’s “no hope of achieving a long-term settlement” to the war until Russia’s demand for territory in Ukraine is accepted. The outlook for the Russia-Ukraine war to continue will keep restrictions on Russian crude in place and is bullish for oil prices.
The IEA last Wednesday cut its 2026 global crude surplus estimate to 3.7 million bpd from last month’s estimate of 3.815 million bpd. On January 13, the EIA raised its 2026 US crude production estimate to 13.59 million bpd from 13.53 million bpd last month, and cut its US 2026 energy consumption estimate to 95.37 (quadrillion btu) from 95.68 last month.
Vortexa reported Monday that crude oil stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least 7 days fell -0.6% w/w to 113.30 million bbl in the week ended January 23.
Crude garnered support after OPEC+ on January 3 said it would stick to its plan to pause production increases in Q1 of 2026. OPEC+ at its November 2025 meeting announced that members would raise production by +137,000 bpd in December, but will then pause the production hikes in Q1-2026 due to the emerging global oil surplus. OPEC+ is trying to restore all of the 2.2 million bpd production cut it made in early 2024, but still has another 1.2 million bpd of production left to restore. OPEC+ will meet this weekend to review a decision on output policy and is expected to stick with plans to keep oil production steady. OPEC’s December crude production rose by +40,000 bpd to 29.03 million bpd.
