With mortgage rates still hovering above 6% and homebuyers wondering if they should wait for better terms, I asked ChatGPT to analyze what experts are predicting for mortgage rates throughout 2026.
The artificial intelligence pulled from multiple forecasting agencies, economic indicators and housing market analysts to paint a picture of where rates are headed. The short version? They’re likely to drift lower, but don’t expect a dramatic plunge.
ChatGPT reported that as of January 2026, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate sits around 6.09% to 6.19%. That’s near the lowest point in more than three years, but still significantly higher than the ultra-low rates borrowers enjoyed in the early 2020s.
Find Out: Experts Reveal the Exact Credit Score Needed for the Best Mortgage Rates in 2026
Read Next: 9 Low-Effort Ways To Make Passive Income (You Can Start This Week)
The AI’s overall takeaway was that mortgage rates will ease modestly in 2026 but won’t collapse back to pandemic-era lows. Most forecasts ChatGPT analyzed put the average 30-year rate somewhere between 6.0% and 6.3% for the year.
Some projections get more optimistic, suggesting rates could dip below 6% by mid- or late 2026, potentially reaching the 5.7% to 5.9% range at certain points. But ChatGPT cautioned that these lower rates would likely be brief windows rather than sustained levels.
ChatGPT highlighted that not everyone agrees on exactly where rates will land. Fannie Mae expects rates to end 2026 around 5.9%, while the Mortgage Bankers Association predicts something closer to 6.4%. Other analysts from Redfin and the National Association of Home Builders see rates landing between 6.1% and 6.3%.
The range of predictions shows there’s real uncertainty about how economic factors will play out over the next year.
ChatGPT broke down three main factors influencing where mortgage rates are headed.
The AI explained that while mortgage rates don’t move in lockstep with the Federal Reserve’s benchmark rate, Fed policy still matters. Rate cuts from the Fed in 2024 and 2025 helped push long-term rates lower. If the Fed cuts rates or holds steady in 2026, that could support small declines in mortgage costs.
But ChatGPT pointed out that the 10-year Treasury bond is actually the biggest driver of mortgage pricing, and those yields remain relatively high compared to pandemic lows.
If inflation continues to moderate, that could support lower rates. But strong jobs data or persistent inflation might keep yields and mortgage rates higher than hoped. The AI made it clear that economic surprises in either direction could shift rate predictions quickly.
