Chipotle expected to report another quarter of sales declines as it navigates tricky consumer backdrop

Chipotle (CMG) is expected to report another quarter of same-store sales declines as the company continues to grapple with a traffic decline and economic pressure on its core customer.

Wall Street expects same-store sales to have fallen 2.9% in the company’s fourth quarter, which Chipotle is expected to report after the market close on Tuesday. Higher menu prices are expected to offset a decline in foot traffic, according to Bloomberg estimates.

Chipotle is expected to report adjusted earnings per share $0.24 on revenue of $2.97 billion.

In its third quarter earnings, reported back in October, Chipotle cut its sales outlook, saying it expected same-store sales to decline in the low-single-digit range for its full year. Wall Street anticipates same-store sales to have fallen 1.8% in 2025.

Last quarter, CEO Scott Boatwright told investors the company’s reduced outlook was due to “ongoing volatility in our trends in the consumer environment.”

Boatwright noted that “a particularly challenged cohort is the 25- to 35-year-old age group … This group is facing several headwinds, including unemployment, increased due loan repayment, and slower real-wage growth.”

Deutsche Bank analyst Lauren Silberman wrote in a note to clients that she expects the company to focus on underlying trends in the macro environment and highlight innovation, like the recent return of Chicken al Pastor. The company also unveiled a new high-protein menu late last year, which features two high-protein bowls, a salad, a burrito, and an adobo chicken taco.

TD Cowen’s Andrew Charles said in a note he’s eager to hear more about Chipotle’s marketing plan following the “abrupt” departure of its chief brand officer, Chris Brandt, earlier this month. As the company searches for a new CMO, it has named Stephanie Perdue as interim marketing chief.