The decision was widely anticipated in financial markets but the split on the nine-member rate-setting panel was much closer than expected. Five members of the Monetary Policy Committee opted to keep rates unchanged while four voted for a quarter-point cut.
The central bank, which sets interest rates for the whole of the U.K., has been steadily reducing interest rates over the past 18 months, more often than not every three months. It last cut its key rate in December and indicated that further reductions are likely this year.
Economic forecasts accompanying the decision reinforced the view that further rate cuts are in the offing, as the bank is predicting that inflation will fall back to its 2% target in the coming months. It currently stands at 3.4%.
“We now think that inflation will fall back to around 2% by the spring,” said Bank Governor Andrew Bailey. “That’s good news. We need to make sure that inflation stays there, so we’ve held rates unchanged at 3.75% today. All going well, there should be scope for some further reduction in Bank Rate this year.”
Britain’s Labour government, which has lost significant support since it won the general election in 2024 partly because of the economy, is counting on inflation falling sharply this year, which would allow the central bank to further reduce borrowing costs.
Lower interest rates help spur economic growth by reducing borrowing costs, which can lead to increased spending by consumers and boost investment by businesses. But that can also fuel higher prices. Central bankers have to weigh those competing forces, trying to prevent inflation from eroding the value of earnings and savings without putting an unnecessary brake on economic growth.
