According to Business Insider, a new venture called Lumina Markets has begun advertising for marketing and legal staff ahead of a planned launch of a prediction-markets platform. The job listings, which appeared on LinkedIn last week, describe the firm as being “backed by a billionaire pioneer of electronic trading”. They were posted by an employee of Interactive Brokers, the brokerage founded by Thomas Peterffy.
Corporate filings appear to add further colour. Registration documents reviewed by Business Insider show that Lumina Markets was incorporated by an in-house lawyer at Interactive Brokers, while its CEO is another attorney who has worked closely with both the firm and Peterffy. Neither Interactive Brokers nor Peterffy has publicly confirmed any involvement.
Still, the overlap is suggestive rather than coincidental.
Not Their First Outing
If Lumina does turn out to be linked to Interactive Brokers, it would not mark the broker’s first venture into prediction markets. In 2024, it launched ForecastEx, a platform allowing users to trade yes-or-no contracts tied to economic data, political outcomes, climate events and other real-world developments.
At the time, management was careful to draw limits. During earnings calls in Q3 2025, Peterffy stressed that the firm had no intention of entering sports-related contracts, which faced regulatory headwinds.
That position, however, has since softened: sports events are now among the contracts available on ForecastEx.
What remains unclear is how Lumina Markets would distinguish itself from its apparent sibling.
The Regulatory Winds Shift
Prediction markets occupy an awkward space in America’s legal architecture. They are overseen not by gambling regulators but by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which classifies such platforms as designated contract markets.
The distinction is interesting, to say the least.
In traditional sports betting, people bet against a bookmaker, which sets odds and pockets losses. In prediction markets, participants trade contracts with one another, while the platform takes a fee for matching buyers and sellers.
On paper, at least, this makes them financial exchanges rather than gambling operators.
That distinction is being tested. Kalshi, the sector’s largest player, has faced lawsuits from several states, including Massachusetts and Nevada, arguing that its sports-related contracts amount to illegal gambling, lacking age restrictions and other safeguards required by gaming laws.
Kalshi counters that it offers financial instruments, not bets.
The regulatory winds, though, appear to be shifting in the industry’s favour. In 2026, the new head of the CFTC, Michael Selig, reportedly instructed the agency to withdraw a proposed 2024 rule that would have barred trading on sports and political outcomes. He also moved to rescind a 2025 advisory urging caution over sports contracts.
Everyone Wants a Slice
The industry is expanding at breakneck speed. Industry estimates suggest trading volumes on prediction market platforms rose from roughly US$9 billion in 2024 to around US$40 billion in 2025. Some forecasts now place annual volumes near US$1 trillion by the end of the decade.
Prediction markets have even seeped into popular culture: At the 2026 Grammy Awards, the host Trevor Noah joked that anyone who had bet on him saying “potato” on Polymarket would have won big.
Established brokers have taken note. Robinhood launched a prediction-markets hub in March 2025; by year’s end, it had become one of the app’s fastest-growing products, generating around US$100 million in annualised revenue. Plus500 followed suit in 2026.
With the 2026 FIFA World Cup just around the corner, interest is unlikely to fade.
This article was written by Adonis Adoni at www.financemagnates.com.
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