Well, the party had to end sometime. After a searing rally in 2025, the bellwether precious metals of gold and silver have had a not-so-shiny start to 2026. Following the Trump administration’s decision to appoint the relatively hawkish Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve chairman after Jay Powell’s tenure ends in May, there was an abrupt halt to the bullish freight train in gold and silver prices.
Dips of 2-4% for gold and a much sharper 33% in a single trading session for silver were widely attributed to a rebounding U.S. dollar and rising Treasury yields as investors adjusted to the prospect of a Warsh-led Fed, which many fear will be less inclined to provide the aggressive rate cuts that fueled the 2025 rally.
Now, Bank of America’s head of metals research, Michael Widmer, has sounded another warning to silver fans. Remarking that the metal’s price could cap at $309 for the year, he suggested that silver could still outperform gold this year.
So, should investors heed Widmer’s caution about silver and steer clear of the precious metal, or has the stinging correction presented itself as an opportunity for a renewed uptick? Let’s find out.
It is quite ironic that it was Donald Trump’s acerbic and loud “America First” economic policies, coupled with tariffs to and fro, that triggered the rally in the precious metals in the first place. Now, that has come full circle, with Trump’s appointment of Warsh as Fed Chair marking the demise of the same rally.
Still, the silver futures contract for March 2026 (SIH26) is up more than 25% on a year-to-date (YTD) basis. Meanwhile, the biggest silver ETF in terms of AUM ($46.2 billion) and volume (daily volume of 175.5 million), the iShares Silver Trust (SLV), is up about 26% in the same period and 180% over the past year. In fact, at the start of 2025, SLV’s AUM was about $13.4 billion. By the time the year closed, it had surged manifold to roughly $38 billion, with an average monthly inflow of about $2.02 billion per month in 2025.
Needless to say, SLV has outperformed the S&P 500 ($SPX) by a wide margin in the year.
www.barchart.com
Coming to the March futures contract, the recent selloff has come as a jolt and paints a more realistic picture, at least for the shorter term. The Put/Call Premium ratio for the contract stands at 0.92. What this essentially means is that even though more money is still in calls, the fact that the ratio is so close to 1.0 (at 0.92) shows that the “cost of protection” is rising rapidly. Bears are paying nearly as much for puts as bulls are for calls.
However, as the heading suggests, there is certainly a silver lining, and the appointment of Warsh does not change that. As a side note, Warsh has never launched a diatribe against silver, which is also a positive. Now to the other, more structural positives that would support silver prices and may even lead to a resumption of its upward journey in 2026.
Firstly, there’s no indication of a major increase in output this year. In fact, most data points toward stagnation or even a decline in production, which should provide a significant floor for prices despite the hawkish shift at the Fed. The most telling indication came just a few days ago from Fresnillo (FNLPF), the world’s largest primary silver producer, which officially cut its 2026 silver production targets. They revised their guidance down to 42–46.5 million ounces (moz), from a previous forecast of 45–51 moz. Moreover, according to the Silver Institute and recent 2026 outlooks, we are entering the fifth (and potentially sixth) consecutive year of a structural deficit. In fact, the cumulative deficit over the last few years has reached nearly 820 moz. Thus, even with the recent price crash, the “physical” market remains tight because miners simply cannot speed up the 7-to-15-year lead time required to open new mines.
And then there is the tailwind of industrial demand.
Notably, silver stands out as the finest electrical conductor of all metals, surpassing even copper (widely used in wiring and power grids) and gold. While it is not employed universally, this property drives very strong demand in select high-growth areas closely linked to emerging economic trends.
Electric vehicles, for instance, require nearly twice as much silver per unit as conventional internal combustion engine vehicles. Hybrids show a similar pattern, consuming elevated quantities of the metal. Consumer electronics (smartphones, laptops, and other devices) also rely on silver for reliable performance. In defense applications, silver remains essential for components in radar systems, submarines, and missile technology. Lastly, silver plays a critical role in photovoltaic cells, and with solar power positioned to expand rapidly as a key energy source to support the ongoing AI infrastructure buildout, demand from this segment is expected to accelerate significantly.
Even if I do believe in Widmer’s prediction, silver’s strong selloff has made it a value buy at this juncture. With long-term drivers in place and silver’s criticality in vital sectors, adding silver at the present moment can only be expected to be beneficial for investors.
On the date of publication, Pathikrit Bose did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com
The first full trading week of February delivered a volatile mix of central bank surprises, deteriorating labor market data, and sharp risk-off sentiment that...
