AngloGold Ashanti (AU) is set to release its Q4 2025 earnings on Feb. 20. Along with the regular dividend, the company is also expected to announce an additional dividend to meet its annual payout targets. AU intends to pay half of its free cash flows to investors as dividends, and while it has already made two true-up payments following the Q2 and Q3 earnings, it should announce another one while releasing the Q4 earnings.
AU stock has risen sharply over the last two years, riding the gold price rally. However, the stock has lost over 12% from its recent highs. Let’s dig into whether AU stock is a buy now ahead of the Q4 confessional.
Let’s begin by examining the recent movement in gold (GCJ26), which is the primary driver of gold mining companies’ price action. While gold has historically been perceived as a “safe” asset, that notion has been shaken in recent days. The yellow metal has been quite volatile, and the price action hasn’t been much different from what we saw with meme stocks in 2021. Meanwhile, gold prices appear to be stabilizing and have rebounded from their lows.
While gold’s fundamentals look positive, the rally had started to show signs of euphoria and was resembling a bubble. In my previous article, I had noted that gold was due for a correction sometime this year, even though I was then tactically bullish. Gold prices did continue to rally and peaked in late January but subsequently crashed. I would, however, admit that the boom-bust was a lot sooner and sharper than what I had anticipated.
Several factors contributed to the crash, including the fact that the precious metal was looking overheated and ripe for correction. Firstly, geopolitical tensions eased after President Donald Trump toned down his rhetoric on Greenland—and by extension the EU. The president also took a softer stance on trade and extended the olive branch to India, lowering tariffs from 50% to 18%. The move came after the world’s most populous country signed trade deals with the UK and the EU in quick succession.
Trump’s picking of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair also contributed to the slide in gold prices. Warsh is known to be a “hawk” when it comes to inflation (though he’s been sending mixed signals lately) and is seen as more independent compared to some of the other names that were floating for the position. Central bank independence is crucial for free markets, and Warsh’s nomination came in as a relief to many, particularly in the bond market. Gold and silver prices, however, sold off as expectations of big interest rate cuts under the next Fed chair faded away. Notably, as a non-interest-bearing asset, gold theoretically does well in periods of low interest rates.
