The freight market has spent the better part of two years grinding along the bottom, offering little relief to brokers operating on thin margins and tighter credit. But as early signals suggest the cycle may finally be inflecting upward, recent earnings calls from RXO and C.H. Robinson offer a timely warning: a rising market does not automatically mean an easier one.
In fact, the transition phase may be where financial and operational stress becomes most acute.
RXO’s fourth-quarter results showed just how fragile broker economics remain. The company pointed to continued pricing pressure, margin compression and the challenge of balancing carrier costs against still-cautious shipper demand.
FreightWaves’ John Kingston writes, “Those various results show what happens when the freight market suddenly gets stronger, as it did in the last four to five weeks of the quarter, and 3PLs face the reality of filling earlier booked capacity with higher-priced truckload rates.”
Brokers often struggle most not at the bottom of the cycle, but as it begins to move. RXO’s commentary fits that pattern. Capacity remains readily available in many lanes, but it is no longer uniformly cheap. Spot rates can move quickly, contract rates lag behind, and brokers caught between the two are forced to make uncomfortable decisions about margin sacrifice versus customer retention.
That tension is likely to intensify as 2026 unfolds.
One of the clearest risks in an upward-inflating market is working capital strain. As carrier rates firm faster than shipper pricing, brokers are asked to float higher payments while waiting for contractual adjustments to catch up. For large, well-capitalized players, this is manageable.
RXO acknowledged this dynamic indirectly, emphasizing discipline around pricing and lane selection. The message was subtle but important: not all freight is worth chasing in a turn. Growth without margin is still just risk. As reported in RXO’s fourth quarter call, “The bottom line GAAP net loss was $46 million in the fourth quarter. That was more than a $25 million GAAP net loss in the fourth quarter of 2024, and $14 million in the third quarter.”
Another stress point is operational. Rising volatility rewards brokers with strong carrier relationships and real-time visibility into lane-level pricing. Those relying too heavily on static models or national averages are more likely to misprice freight and pay for it later.
The contrast with C.H. Robinson is revealing.
Despite ongoing headwinds, Robinson’s earnings calls struck a notably different tone. While management acknowledged the tough environment, the company highlighted productivity gains, cost discipline and improved execution. The market responded accordingly, sending the stock higher even as freight fundamentals remained mixed.
