Palantir Technologies (PLTR) just delivered what CEO Alex Karp called a “truly iconic” performance in its Q4. The stock briefly popped after the company crushed Wall Street estimates and issued 2026 guidance that feels more like science fiction than reality.
But as a risk manager, you have to look past the post-earnings glow. While the rally was impressive, the stock is fighting a multi-year history of volatility and a valuation that puts it in a category of one — for better or worse.
And then, PLTR gave it all back and more. Followed up by rallying 5% on Friday morning. What else is new?
I’ve come to regard PLTR as a symbol of the modern stock market. The way it is discussed, the boldness and arrogance of the CEO, and the thrills and spills that are part and parcel of being a PLTR shareholder.
The longer-term chart picture, as in a daily view, shows just how much this stock is “juiced” in both directions. Since last July 4, the stock has essentially roundtripped from $136 to $200 and back to $136. And while the Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO) is as low as it has been over the past 12 months, the 20-day moving average (in red, top of chart) is still in deep decline. Translation: it will take more than a few days’ rally to turn this ship around.
In software, the “Rule of 40” (revenue growth + profit margin) is the gold standard. In Q4, Palantir hit a staggering 127%. This was driven by a 70% year-over-year revenue surge and a massive 93% growth in its U.S. business. When a multibillion-dollar company accelerates its growth rate while increasing its profit margins to 57%, the market is going to reward it with a massive pop. At least for a little while. Then, the expectations move up with the stock price.
For years, the bear case was that PLTR was just a government consultant with no scalable product. But with U.S. commercial revenue flying higher by more than 130% year-over year in the last report, there’s hard proof that companies aren’t just testing Palantir’s AI. They are committing to it.
Despite the stellar numbers, Palantir remains the most expensive stock in the S&P 500 Index ($SPX) by several metrics. It currently trades at a price-to-earnings ratio that doesn’t even look like it’s a real number. But it is. Same with its trailing revenue multiple.
