A massive wave of supply-side incentives and direct stimulus is set to propel the U.S. economy toward a 15% earnings growth surge in 2026, says Jason Trennert, CEO of Strategas Research Partners, as tax provisions ignite a domestic manufacturing renaissance.
Speaking on the Real Eisman Playbook, Trennert highlighted President Donald Trump‘s “one big beautiful bill” as the primary catalyst for economic resilience in 2026.
This legislation is expected to inject approximately $150 billion into the system via tax refunds and immediate stimulus. Beyond consumer spending, the bill’s “supply-side” provisions are designed to overhaul the U.S. industrial landscape.
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Specifically, new rules allow companies to write off the entire cost of building a domestic factory immediately, rather than depreciating the expense over a decade.
Trennert suggests this will compel CEOs to shift from financial engineering, such as stock buybacks, toward “real engineering” and capital spending.
The optimistic 14% to 15% earnings growth projection is supported by a unique alignment of cultural and economic events. Trennert also points to the 250th anniversary of the United States and the hosting of the World Cup as significant drivers of domestic activity.
With real GDP projected at 3% and inflation hovering around 2.5%, the resulting 5.5% nominal GDP creates a “sanguine” environment for 2026.
These factors make a near-term recession unlikely, though experts remain watchful regarding whether these capital investments can stay ahead of inflationary pressures as the calendar turns to 2027.
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This industrial-heavy growth marks a departure from the tech-dominated rallies of previous years. As populism remains a dominant political force, investors are pivoting toward “hard assets” like materials, gold, and farmland.
While the Federal Reserve‘s inflated balance sheet continues to provide a “backstop” for valuations, the underlying engine of the 2026 market appears to be rooted in physical infrastructure.
