Gold price surged
above $5,000 on Monday, February 9, 2026, trading at $5,033 after gaining 1.30%
as Wells Fargo Investment Institute dramatically upgraded its year-end forecast
to $6,100-$6,300.
The
revision comes as China’s central bank extended its gold buying spree for
the 15th consecutive month, with holdings rising to 74.19 million
fine troy ounces valued at $369.58 billion. Gold has now gained 9.45%
over the past month and 72.50% year-over-year despite extreme
volatility that saw a 21% drawdown before recovering.
In this
article, I am answering the question of why gold is going up today, analyzing
the XAU/USD chart and checking the newest gold price predictions.
Follow
me on X for more gold market analysis: @ChmielDk
Gold
returned above the critical $5,000 psychological level on
Monday, trading at $5,033, after spending the previous week below this
threshold. The recovery extends gold’s remarkable resilience following violent
late January and early February selloffs that saw single-day losses of up to
9%.
Over the
past 30 days, gold has gained 9.45% despite a brutal 21.3%
drawdown that briefly pushed prices to $4,400 before buyers stepped in
aggressively. The recovery found support exactly where my technical analysis
predicted: at the 50-day exponential moving average around
$4,550-$4,600, which coincides with late 2025 historical highs.
From my technical
analysis perspective, if gold maintains its position above $5,000 at the
beginning of the week, it opens the path again toward resistance around $5,400
per ounce, which I identify on the daily chart as the previous all-time
high zone. As a reminder, we drew the current ATH on January 29 at nearly $5,608
per ounce.
Gold is
currently trading around $4,960-$5,033 across various markets, representing a
significant recovery from recent lows.
Gold price technical analysis. Source: Tradingview.com
Gold Price Predictions
How High Can Gold Go? Wells
Fargo’s Shocking 40% Forecast Upgrade
Wells Fargo
Investment Institute announced on February 4, 2026, that it now expects gold to
reach $6,100-$6,300 by the end of 2026, up from its previous
forecast of just $4,500-$4,700. This represents a 35-40% increase in a
single revision, vaulting Wells Fargo to among the most bullish major banks
alongside JPMorgan.
“The
prospect for lower short-term interest rates and the potential to hedge against
accelerating policy surprises prompt us to raise our 2026 gold target,”
Wells Fargo stated in its Wednesday note. The bank emphasized that “such
conditions should encourage further central-bank buying,” which has been a
primary driver of gold’s multi-year bull run.
From
current levels around $5,033, Wells Fargo’s target implies 21-25%
upside over the next ten months. The magnitude of this upgrade
reflects a fundamental shift in how major institutions view gold’s trajectory
amid mounting concerns about currency stability and geopolitical risks.
However,
Wells Fargo noted an important caveat: “Central-bank purchases slowed in
2025 even as retail buying surged, especially into exchange -traded funds.”
The bank warned that “historically, retail investors often include
speculators who may sell quickly on headlines,” pointing to the 9%
single-session drop on January 30 after Fed Chair nominee news.
Wall Street Consensus
Shifts Decisively Above $6,000
Wells
Fargo’s upgrade solidifies a remarkable consensus among bullish major banks,
nearly all of which now target $6,000 or higher for year-end 2026:
|
Institution |
2026 Target |
Previous Target |
Upgrade |
Forecast Date |
Upside from $5,033 |
|
Wells Fargo |
$6,100-6,300 |
$4,500-4,700 |
+35-40% |
Feb 4, 2026 |
+21-25% |
|
JPMorgan |
$6,300 |
N/A |
New high |
Feb 2, 2026 |
+25% |
|
UBS |
$6,200 |
$5,000 (Q1-Q3) |
+24% |
Jan 29, 2026 |
+23% |
|
Deutsche Bank |
$6,000 |
Maintained |
+19% |
Jan 26, 2026 |
+19% |
|
Societe Generale |
$6,000 |
N/A |
Year-end |
Jan 26, 2026 |
+19% |
|
Goldman Sachs |
$5,400 |
N/A |
Dec 2026 |
Jan 22, 2026 |
+7% |
|
Macquarie |
$4,323 avg |
$4,225 |
+2.3% |
Feb 2, 2026 |
-14% |
|
Citi Research |
$5,000 |
Base $3,600-3,800 |
Bull case |
Jan 13, 2026 |
-1% |
|
Commerzbank |
$4,800 |
N/A |
Mid-2026 |
Jan 13, 2026 |
-5% |
The
clustering of forecasts around $6,000-6,300 among the most
influential banks, Wells Fargo, JPMorgan, UBS, and Deutsche Bank, represents a
powerful consensus that gold’s bull market has substantial room to run.
JPMorgan,
which issued its $6,300 forecast on February 2, projects central banks will
acquire approximately 800 tons of gold in 2026, referencing
“an ongoing trend of diversifying reserves that shows no signs of
waning”. The bank stated: “Despite the recent short-term
fluctuations, we remain strongly optimistic about gold in the medium term,
driven by a clear, structural trend of continued diversification that is likely
to persist in an environment where real assets continue to outperform paper
assets.”
For broader
context, Goldman Sachs
previously set a more conservative $5,400 target, while Ron Paul’s
extreme forecast of $20,000-$100,000 reflects his “fiat system
dying” thesis, and one analyst
even projects $10,000 gold.
Why Gold Is Surging?
China’s 15-Month Gold
Buying Spree: Strategic Repositioning
China’s
central bank extended its gold acquisition program for the 15th
consecutive month in January, with holdings rising to 74.19 million
fine troy ounces by the end of January, up from 74.15 million the
previous month. The value of China’s gold reserves surged to $369.58
billion at the end of last month from $319.45 billion in December,
reflecting both continued purchases and price appreciation.
Rania Gule,
Senior Market Analyst at XS.com MENA, emphasizes the strategic nature of these
purchases: “The People’s Bank of China has continued purchasing gold for
the fifteenth consecutive month, clearly signaling a long-term
repositioning rather than a temporary move.”
She
identifies this as part of a broader shift away from dollar dependence.
“From my perspective, the most sensitive factor at this stage is the
escalation of concerns regarding the independence of the US Federal Reserve,
particularly following recent political statements that have blurred the lines
between monetary policy and executive authority.”
Federal Reserve
Independence Concerns Drive Safe-Haven Demand
Beyond
China’s strategic purchases, Rania Gule identifies growing concerns about U.S.
monetary policy independence as a critical driver of gold’s surge above $5,000.
“At a
highly significant moment for global markets, this move is not merely an
exceptional price fluctuation, but rather a direct reflection of deeper
shifts in the structure of the global monetary system and in the
balance of confidence between currencies and assets,” Gule explains.
Technical Analysis: $5,000
Key Threshold, $5,400 Resistance Ahead
Dilin Wu,
Research Strategist at Pepperstone, identifies the current technical landscape:
“Gold remains in a consolidation pattern, with $5,000 as a key
level. Geopolitical risks, central bank buying, and a softer dollar provide
support.”
Over the
past week, Wu notes, “gold has traded within a wide range. Repeated shifts
in geopolitical developments, combined with swings in trader risk appetite,
have limited the metal’s ability to trend unilaterally. Meanwhile, ongoing
central bank purchases and a temporarily weaker dollar have provided solid
support for gold’s downside.”
The
consolidation range has been substantial. “Gold briefly dipped to around
$4,400 last week but remained largely within the $4,630-$5,100 range,”
Wu observes. “Long and short positions have alternated frequently, with
daily charts showing multiple long bodies and extended wicks, indicating
significant intraday swings.”
Although
gold closed the previous week up 1.6%, Wu cautions that “in the current
high-volatility environment this appears more like a repricing of risk
rather than a clear return of a bullish trend.”
From my technical
perspective, the key levels are clear:
Current
Position: $5,033
Gold has successfully reclaimed the $5,000 psychological level, which serves as
the most important near-term support.
Resistance:
$5,400
If notowań złota maintains above $5,000 at the beginning of the week, it opens
the path toward resistance around $5,400, which I identify on the
daily chart near the previous ATH zone.
Support
Zone 1: $4,550-$4,600
If gold fails to hold above $5,000, support arrives at the 50-day EMA around
$4,550-$4,600, which extends to late 2025 historical maximums. This is exactly
where the three-day gold selloff stopped in early February, and it’s where I
would expect greater accumulation of buy orders.
Support
Zone 2: $4,360
This entire support area extends down to $4,360, where October peaks sit.
Bear
Invalidation: $3,900
The ultimate support zone consists of November 2024 lows combined with the 200
EMA around $3,900. In terms of technical corrections, gold
still has plenty of room for downside movement before threatening the
long-term bull market structure.
Gold Dominates CFD Trading
Amid Volatility
The extreme
volatility in gold prices has made it the dominant instrument for CFD traders
seeking to capture massive intraday swings. Gold has
dominated trading volumes at major brokers like Axi, with institutional and retail participants
drawn to the 9% daily moves and rapid $1,000+ reversals that characterized late
January and early February.
This
heightened trading activity itself contributes to volatility, as leveraged
positions amplify both rallies and selloffs. The January 30 flash crash that
saw gold plunge 9% in a single session demonstrated how quickly sentiment can
shift when margin calls and stop-losses cascade.
While major
banks cluster around $6,000-6,300 targets, not all analysts share this
optimism. Scope Markets
EU CEO previously warned that Wall Street’s $6,000 gold price targets may be
setting a retail trap,
suggesting major institutions could be distributing to retail investors at
elevated levels.
FAQ, gold price analysis
Why is gold surging today?
Gold surged
1.30% to $5,033 on Monday, February 9, 2026, reclaiming the critical $5,000
psychological level after trading below it for a week. China’s central bank
extended its buying spree for the 15th consecutive month, with holdings rising
to 74.19 million ounces valued at $369.58 billion. Wells Fargo dramatically
upgraded its year-end target to $6,100-6,300 (from $4,500-4,700) on February 4,
citing “lower short-term interest rates and potential to hedge against
accelerating policy surprises”.
How high can gold go in
2026?
Wells
Fargo’s February 4 upgrade to $6,100-6,300 represents the highest year-end
target among major banks, implying 21-25% upside from current $5,033. JPMorgan
matches this at $6,300, while UBS targets $6,200 and Deutsche Bank $6,000.
Goldman Sachs is more conservative at $5,400. The bullish consensus centers on
800 tons of forecast central bank purchases and “real assets continuing to
outperform paper assets” according to JPMorgan. However, Citi’s bearish
base case of $3,600-3,800 warns of potential 24-28% downside.
Should I buy gold now?
Gold at
$5,033 sits 10% below its January 29 ATH of $5,608 but up 72.50% year-over-year
and 9.45% over the past month despite extreme volatility. Technical support
exists at $5,000 (psychological), $4,550-4,600 (50 EMA where early February
selloff stopped), and $3,900 (200 EMA bear invalidation).
Gold price surged
above $5,000 on Monday, February 9, 2026, trading at $5,033 after gaining 1.30%
as Wells Fargo Investment Institute dramatically upgraded its year-end forecast
to $6,100-$6,300.
The
revision comes as China’s central bank extended its gold buying spree for
the 15th consecutive month, with holdings rising to 74.19 million
fine troy ounces valued at $369.58 billion. Gold has now gained 9.45%
over the past month and 72.50% year-over-year despite extreme
volatility that saw a 21% drawdown before recovering.
In this
article, I am answering the question of why gold is going up today, analyzing
the XAU/USD chart and checking the newest gold price predictions.
Follow
me on X for more gold market analysis: @ChmielDk
Gold
returned above the critical $5,000 psychological level on
Monday, trading at $5,033, after spending the previous week below this
threshold. The recovery extends gold’s remarkable resilience following violent
late January and early February selloffs that saw single-day losses of up to
9%.
Over the
past 30 days, gold has gained 9.45% despite a brutal 21.3%
drawdown that briefly pushed prices to $4,400 before buyers stepped in
aggressively. The recovery found support exactly where my technical analysis
predicted: at the 50-day exponential moving average around
$4,550-$4,600, which coincides with late 2025 historical highs.
From my technical
analysis perspective, if gold maintains its position above $5,000 at the
beginning of the week, it opens the path again toward resistance around $5,400
per ounce, which I identify on the daily chart as the previous all-time
high zone. As a reminder, we drew the current ATH on January 29 at nearly $5,608
per ounce.
Gold is
currently trading around $4,960-$5,033 across various markets, representing a
significant recovery from recent lows.
Gold price technical analysis. Source: Tradingview.com
Gold Price Predictions
How High Can Gold Go? Wells
Fargo’s Shocking 40% Forecast Upgrade
Wells Fargo
Investment Institute announced on February 4, 2026, that it now expects gold to
reach $6,100-$6,300 by the end of 2026, up from its previous
forecast of just $4,500-$4,700. This represents a 35-40% increase in a
single revision, vaulting Wells Fargo to among the most bullish major banks
alongside JPMorgan.
“The
prospect for lower short-term interest rates and the potential to hedge against
accelerating policy surprises prompt us to raise our 2026 gold target,”
Wells Fargo stated in its Wednesday note. The bank emphasized that “such
conditions should encourage further central-bank buying,” which has been a
primary driver of gold’s multi-year bull run.
From
current levels around $5,033, Wells Fargo’s target implies 21-25%
upside over the next ten months. The magnitude of this upgrade
reflects a fundamental shift in how major institutions view gold’s trajectory
amid mounting concerns about currency stability and geopolitical risks.
However,
Wells Fargo noted an important caveat: “Central-bank purchases slowed in
2025 even as retail buying surged, especially into exchange -traded funds.”
The bank warned that “historically, retail investors often include
speculators who may sell quickly on headlines,” pointing to the 9%
single-session drop on January 30 after Fed Chair nominee news.
Wall Street Consensus
Shifts Decisively Above $6,000
Wells
Fargo’s upgrade solidifies a remarkable consensus among bullish major banks,
nearly all of which now target $6,000 or higher for year-end 2026:
|
Institution |
2026 Target |
Previous Target |
Upgrade |
Forecast Date |
Upside from $5,033 |
|
Wells Fargo |
$6,100-6,300 |
$4,500-4,700 |
+35-40% |
Feb 4, 2026 |
+21-25% |
|
JPMorgan |
$6,300 |
N/A |
New high |
Feb 2, 2026 |
+25% |
|
UBS |
$6,200 |
$5,000 (Q1-Q3) |
+24% |
Jan 29, 2026 |
+23% |
|
Deutsche Bank |
$6,000 |
Maintained |
+19% |
Jan 26, 2026 |
+19% |
|
Societe Generale |
$6,000 |
N/A |
Year-end |
Jan 26, 2026 |
+19% |
|
Goldman Sachs |
$5,400 |
N/A |
Dec 2026 |
Jan 22, 2026 |
+7% |
|
Macquarie |
$4,323 avg |
$4,225 |
+2.3% |
Feb 2, 2026 |
-14% |
|
Citi Research |
$5,000 |
Base $3,600-3,800 |
Bull case |
Jan 13, 2026 |
-1% |
|
Commerzbank |
$4,800 |
N/A |
Mid-2026 |
Jan 13, 2026 |
-5% |
The
clustering of forecasts around $6,000-6,300 among the most
influential banks, Wells Fargo, JPMorgan, UBS, and Deutsche Bank, represents a
powerful consensus that gold’s bull market has substantial room to run.
JPMorgan,
which issued its $6,300 forecast on February 2, projects central banks will
acquire approximately 800 tons of gold in 2026, referencing
“an ongoing trend of diversifying reserves that shows no signs of
waning”. The bank stated: “Despite the recent short-term
fluctuations, we remain strongly optimistic about gold in the medium term,
driven by a clear, structural trend of continued diversification that is likely
to persist in an environment where real assets continue to outperform paper
assets.”
For broader
context, Goldman Sachs
previously set a more conservative $5,400 target, while Ron Paul’s
extreme forecast of $20,000-$100,000 reflects his “fiat system
dying” thesis, and one analyst
even projects $10,000 gold.
Why Gold Is Surging?
China’s 15-Month Gold
Buying Spree: Strategic Repositioning
China’s
central bank extended its gold acquisition program for the 15th
consecutive month in January, with holdings rising to 74.19 million
fine troy ounces by the end of January, up from 74.15 million the
previous month. The value of China’s gold reserves surged to $369.58
billion at the end of last month from $319.45 billion in December,
reflecting both continued purchases and price appreciation.
Rania Gule,
Senior Market Analyst at XS.com MENA, emphasizes the strategic nature of these
purchases: “The People’s Bank of China has continued purchasing gold for
the fifteenth consecutive month, clearly signaling a long-term
repositioning rather than a temporary move.”
She
identifies this as part of a broader shift away from dollar dependence.
“From my perspective, the most sensitive factor at this stage is the
escalation of concerns regarding the independence of the US Federal Reserve,
particularly following recent political statements that have blurred the lines
between monetary policy and executive authority.”
Federal Reserve
Independence Concerns Drive Safe-Haven Demand
Beyond
China’s strategic purchases, Rania Gule identifies growing concerns about U.S.
monetary policy independence as a critical driver of gold’s surge above $5,000.
“At a
highly significant moment for global markets, this move is not merely an
exceptional price fluctuation, but rather a direct reflection of deeper
shifts in the structure of the global monetary system and in the
balance of confidence between currencies and assets,” Gule explains.
Technical Analysis: $5,000
Key Threshold, $5,400 Resistance Ahead
Dilin Wu,
Research Strategist at Pepperstone, identifies the current technical landscape:
“Gold remains in a consolidation pattern, with $5,000 as a key
level. Geopolitical risks, central bank buying, and a softer dollar provide
support.”
Over the
past week, Wu notes, “gold has traded within a wide range. Repeated shifts
in geopolitical developments, combined with swings in trader risk appetite,
have limited the metal’s ability to trend unilaterally. Meanwhile, ongoing
central bank purchases and a temporarily weaker dollar have provided solid
support for gold’s downside.”
The
consolidation range has been substantial. “Gold briefly dipped to around
$4,400 last week but remained largely within the $4,630-$5,100 range,”
Wu observes. “Long and short positions have alternated frequently, with
daily charts showing multiple long bodies and extended wicks, indicating
significant intraday swings.”
Although
gold closed the previous week up 1.6%, Wu cautions that “in the current
high-volatility environment this appears more like a repricing of risk
rather than a clear return of a bullish trend.”
From my technical
perspective, the key levels are clear:
Current
Position: $5,033
Gold has successfully reclaimed the $5,000 psychological level, which serves as
the most important near-term support.
Resistance:
$5,400
If notowań złota maintains above $5,000 at the beginning of the week, it opens
the path toward resistance around $5,400, which I identify on the
daily chart near the previous ATH zone.
Support
Zone 1: $4,550-$4,600
If gold fails to hold above $5,000, support arrives at the 50-day EMA around
$4,550-$4,600, which extends to late 2025 historical maximums. This is exactly
where the three-day gold selloff stopped in early February, and it’s where I
would expect greater accumulation of buy orders.
Support
Zone 2: $4,360
This entire support area extends down to $4,360, where October peaks sit.
Bear
Invalidation: $3,900
The ultimate support zone consists of November 2024 lows combined with the 200
EMA around $3,900. In terms of technical corrections, gold
still has plenty of room for downside movement before threatening the
long-term bull market structure.
Gold Dominates CFD Trading
Amid Volatility
The extreme
volatility in gold prices has made it the dominant instrument for CFD traders
seeking to capture massive intraday swings. Gold has
dominated trading volumes at major brokers like Axi, with institutional and retail participants
drawn to the 9% daily moves and rapid $1,000+ reversals that characterized late
January and early February.
This
heightened trading activity itself contributes to volatility, as leveraged
positions amplify both rallies and selloffs. The January 30 flash crash that
saw gold plunge 9% in a single session demonstrated how quickly sentiment can
shift when margin calls and stop-losses cascade.
While major
banks cluster around $6,000-6,300 targets, not all analysts share this
optimism. Scope Markets
EU CEO previously warned that Wall Street’s $6,000 gold price targets may be
setting a retail trap,
suggesting major institutions could be distributing to retail investors at
elevated levels.
FAQ, gold price analysis
Why is gold surging today?
Gold surged
1.30% to $5,033 on Monday, February 9, 2026, reclaiming the critical $5,000
psychological level after trading below it for a week. China’s central bank
extended its buying spree for the 15th consecutive month, with holdings rising
to 74.19 million ounces valued at $369.58 billion. Wells Fargo dramatically
upgraded its year-end target to $6,100-6,300 (from $4,500-4,700) on February 4,
citing “lower short-term interest rates and potential to hedge against
accelerating policy surprises”.
How high can gold go in
2026?
Wells
Fargo’s February 4 upgrade to $6,100-6,300 represents the highest year-end
target among major banks, implying 21-25% upside from current $5,033. JPMorgan
matches this at $6,300, while UBS targets $6,200 and Deutsche Bank $6,000.
Goldman Sachs is more conservative at $5,400. The bullish consensus centers on
800 tons of forecast central bank purchases and “real assets continuing to
outperform paper assets” according to JPMorgan. However, Citi’s bearish
base case of $3,600-3,800 warns of potential 24-28% downside.
Should I buy gold now?
Gold at
$5,033 sits 10% below its January 29 ATH of $5,608 but up 72.50% year-over-year
and 9.45% over the past month despite extreme volatility. Technical support
exists at $5,000 (psychological), $4,550-4,600 (50 EMA where early February
selloff stopped), and $3,900 (200 EMA bear invalidation).
