Another analyst cuts Coinbase price target ahead of earnings

Just days after JPMorgan’s price revision for Coinbase (NASDAQ: COIN), another equity analyst has lowered the largest American crypto exchange’s price target.

This comes right ahead of its earnings, which will be announced after market close on Feb. 12.

H.C. Wainwright analyst Mike Colonnese warned of a potential revenue and adjusted EBITDA shortfall tied to weaker crypto markets.

Related: Cathie Wood buys crypto stocks aggressively as Bitcoin crashes

Colonnese expects the crypto exchange to report a miss on both net revenue and adjusted EBITDA, citing soft digital asset prices and subdued trading volumes throughout the quarter.

According to Colonnese’s note, the crypto exchange may post an “unusually large headline EPS [earnings per share] loss.” This would be largely because of unrealized crypto losses and its stake in Circle (NASDAQ: CRCL), which reportedly fell roughly 40% quarter-over-quarter.

Subscription and Services revenue guidance for the first quarter of 2026 could come in below consensus expectations due to continued weakness in digital asset prices and declining USDC market capitalization.

H.C. Wainwright has currently estimated it at $756 million.

Colonnese also warned of potential near-term share pressure right after earnings.

“We would not be surprised to see shares trade lower on the optics of a large reported net loss, especially given ongoing weak investor sentiment for crypto,” the note read.

Meanwhile, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong has been selling his crypto stocks.

VanEck’s Matthew Sigel said Armstrong has sold about $545.7 million worth of company stock over the past nine months, as reported by Decrypt.

Sigel, who leads digital assets research at the asset manager, shared Bloomberg pricing data showing Armstrong sold more than 1.5 million shares between April 2025 and January 2026.

The largest single-day sale took place on June 25, 2025, when Armstrong sold 336,265 shares at $355.37 each. The most recent transaction occurred on Jan. 5, when he sold 40,000 shares at $254.92 apiece, according to Sigel.

As the report began circulating, Armstrong responded on X,

“It would be a little crazy after 13 years, to have 99.999% of your net worth in one stock no? So there is only one direction to go. I still have vast majority of my net worth in Coinbase stock though, so I’m super long.”

He added that he used the proceeds from his stock sale to start more companies.

Colonnese cut his price target on Coinbase to $350 from $425, a reduction of 17.6%, while maintaining a “Buy” rating on the stock.

At press time, shares were trading near $152.80 during pre-market hours on Feb. 12 after closing at $153.20 a day earlier. In this case, Colonnese’s new price target is a potential upside of more than 128%.

Despite the cautious near-term outlook, the analyst remains constructively bullish on Coinbase’s future.

“We are buyers of any weakness after tomorrow night’s results, as we believe the risk/reward skews to the upside at these levels,” he wrote.

He also pointed to potential positive catalysts, including progress on crypto market structure legislation, which could provide regulatory clarity and support long-term growth prospects for the exchange.

Recently, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indirectly criticized Coinbase, tagging it as among the “recalcitrant actors” who are not ready to compromise and are holding back the progress on crypto legislation.

Related: Coinbase CEO denies reports of White House clash over crypto bill

This story was originally published by TheStreet on Feb 12, 2026, where it first appeared in the Trading News & Analysis section. Add TheStreet as a Preferred Source by clicking here.