Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee spoke with Yahoo Finance today and had some notable comments:
- Encouraging and concerning parts in latest CPI
- We are still seeing pretty high services inflation
- Hopes we’ve seen the peak impact of tariffs
- The job market has been steady, only modest cooling
- Rates can still go down but need to see progress on inflation
- Consumers should hold up if the jobs market is stable and inflation eases
- I don’t know how restrictive Fed policy is
- High services inflation is worrisome
- We are not on a path back to 2% inflation, stuck around 3%
December CPI came in slightly cooler than expected, with headline inflation rising 0.2% month-over-month versus the 0.3% consensus, while the year-over-year rate held at 2.5%. Core inflation matched expectations at 2.5% annually and 0.3% monthly. Real weekly earnings flipped positive at +0.5%, a notable improvement from the prior revised -0.5%. Supercore printed at 2.7% year-over-year. Markets reacted with a modest dovish repricing of Fed expectations, pressuring the dollar lower.
In the bond market, the notable move this week has been in the long end, following a surprisingly strong auction and the turmoil in equities. Thirty-year yields have slid to 4.70% from 4.90% this week.
US 30 year yields, daily
The US economic calendar was busy this week but quiets considerably next week, in part due to the President’s Day holiday on Monday. On Tuesday we get the Empire FEd and NAHB housing market index. Wednesday we get durable goods and housing starts. Thursday we get initial jobless claims as usual and Friday is the PCE report.
There is a smattering of Fedspeak throughout the week but it’s tough to imagine that any of it will make any real waves given the data dependence that most policymakers are preaching.
