Why Gold Is Falling with Silver and Why ANZ Forecasts $5.8K Price

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me on X for more gold and silver market analysis: @ChmielDk

Recovery Tested After
Historic Crash

February 17
marks a critical test for precious metals bulls. After staging a powerful
recovery from the January 31 crash lows, gold and silver are retesting
support levels that could determine whether the correction deepens or
the bull market resumes.

Gold peaked
at $5,608 on January 30, then crashed to $4,745 the next day before recovering
to the $4,750-4,800 range by February 2. The metal traded as high as $5,120 on
February 11, suggesting the worst was over. But Tuesday’s selloff pushed gold
back toward $4,850, down 2.6% intraday, raising questions about whether another
leg down is imminent.

Gold’s
Current Price Action:

• Current:
  $4,911 per ounce
• Intraday
  low: $4,858 (Feb 17)
• Recent
  high: $5,120 (Feb 11)
• Key
  support: $4,850-4,600
• Resistance:
  $5,000-5,100

Silver’s Current Price Action:

• Current:
  $74 per ounce
• Intraday
  low: Under $73 (Feb 17)
• Recent
  recovery high: $83 (Feb 2)
• Key
  support: $70, then $55
• Resistance:
  $80, then $100-120

Despite the
renewed weakness, gold remains up 6.5% over the past month and
a remarkable 67% year-over-year. Silver still shows monthly gains of 4% and
annual returns exceeding 155%, underscoring that this remains a secular bull
market experiencing violent corrections rather than a trend reversal.

Dilin Wu,
Research Strategist at Pepperstone, notes: “If short-term bears
dominate, the lower boundary of the February upward channel near $4,900, and
further down at $4,640, may provide support. Conversely, a sustained
break above $5,100 could open the way toward $5,180-$5,200, representing key
resistance levels before challenging new highs.”

Technical Analysis:
Critical Support Tested

Gold’s Chart Setup

Gold’s
price action on February 17 shows the metal falling 2.6% with intraday lows at $4,858 before
recovering to trade slightly above $4,911 per ounce. The price is moving within
a support zone between $4,850-$4,900, marked by the psychological
$5,000 level above and critical support at $4,600 below.

According
to my chart, the 50 exponential moving average (50 EMA) has
been tested multiple times since the January 31 crash, with gold bouncing off
this level on February 2 before rallying to $5,120 on February 11. Tuesday’s
weakness brings the metal back toward this critical technical level, which
could determine the next directional move.

Key
support levels include
the current $4,850-4,900 zone, followed by $4,640 (identified
by Pepperstone’s Dilin Wu as highly important), and then the major support zone
at $3,900-4,000 where the 200 EMA and November 2025 lows
converge.

On the
upside, resistance sits at $5,000-5,100, with a sustained break
above that level potentially opening the path toward $5,180-5,200 before
challenging the January 30 all-time high of $5,608. The trend
remains officially bullish based on long-term moving average alignment, meaning
any moves down to support should be treated as buying opportunities for those
betting on a return to higher levels.

Silver’s Volatile Pattern

Silver’s
chart shows even more dramatic swings. According to my technical analysis, the
white metal is down over 4% on February 17, testing lows under $73 per ounce
(11-day lows) before recovering slightly to trade around $74. Direct
support sits at the round $70 level, while major support lies at $55 where
the 200 EMA currently resides.

This $55
level coincides with historical highs from October 2024, making it a critical
zone for bulls to defend if selling pressure intensifies. A break below $55
would signal bears have significantly shifted the balance of power on the
chart.

Resistance
for silver is found at $80 (the 50 EMA, which is positioned
horizontally since late January), with the next barrier at the round
$100 level and ultimately historical highs above $120 tested
in late January. The long-term trend remains bullish based on the 200 EMA
slope, meaning pullbacks to support zones should theoretically attract buyers
looking to position for the next leg higher.

If
Tuesday’s session closes near current levels without further deterioration, silver will add another lower wick
to recent price action, potentially forming a base from which to launch the
next rally phase. But a close below $70 would raise concerns that another
violent leg down could be in progress.

Gold Price Prediction: ANZ
Raises Forecast to $5,800 Target for Q2 2026

While
traders panic over daily price swings, ANZ Bank upgraded its gold
forecast on February 13, projecting the metal will reach $5,800
per ounce in Q2 2026, up from the previous $5,400 target. This represents
18% upside from current levels and suggests the bank views recent weakness as a
buying opportunity rather than a trend change.

ANZ
analysts Soni Kumari and Daniel Hynes emphasized that “the rally
is not yet mature enough to reverse anytime soon.” They argue the
backdrop for gold in 2026 differs fundamentally from previous peak periods in
1980 and 2013.

The key
differences: easy U.S. monetary policy, escalating geopolitical
tensions, ongoing policy uncertainty, and a weakening dollar create an
environment where appetite for diversification is intensifying. Unlike past
peaks that ended in sustained bear markets, current structural factors suggest
dips should be bought.

“We
believe gold remains an insurance asset against a plethora of
uncertainties, and the recent correction presents an opportunity for fresh
investment,” the ANZ team wrote. They noted that market focus is
increasingly turning to potential tariff effects, which haven’t yet shown up in
economic or inflation data but pose significant risks.

In the
meantime, Congressman
and Liberty Report host Ron Paul maintains his ultra-bullish
long-term forecast that many dismissed as extreme when first announced.

In a
January 27 interview with The David Lin Report, just days before the crash,
Paul warned: “The fiat monetary system is dying” and
predicted gold
could reach $20,000 or even $100,000 as the dollar
collapses and trust in currency evaporates.

Gold and Silver Price
Analysis FAQ

Why are gold and silver
falling today?

Gold fell
2.6% to $4,911 and silver crashed 4% to $74 on February 17, 2026, testing
recovery levels reached after the historic January 31 crash. The renewed
weakness comes despite ANZ Bank raising its Q2 2026 gold forecast to $5,800,
suggesting markets remain nervous about Kevin Warsh’s Fed Chair nomination and
potential monetary policy tightening.

What is the gold price
forecast for 2026?

ANZ Bank
upgraded its gold price forecast to $5,800 per ounce for Q2 2026, up from the
previous $5,400 target. The bank views recent corrections as buying
opportunities rather than trend reversals, citing easy monetary policy,
geopolitical tensions, ongoing uncertainty, and a weakening dollar as
structural support factors that differ from previous peak periods in 1980 and
2013.

Will gold and silver
continue falling?

Technical
analysis shows gold testing critical support at $4,850-$4,900 with key levels
at $4,640 (Pepperstone’s Dilin Wu calls this “highly important”) and
$3,900-$4,000 (200 EMA zone). Silver is testing $70-$74 support with major
support at $55. Central bank buying (755+ tonnes expected in 2026) provides a
structural floor, while Ron Paul maintains $20,000-$100,000 long-term targets
based on fiat system collapse thesis.

Is this a good time to buy
gold and silver?

Both metals
are testing support levels after violent corrections (gold from $5,608 to
$4,850, silver from $122 to $74). ANZ characterizes this as an
“opportunity for fresh investment” with $5,800 upside target.
However, extreme volatility persists with multi-percent daily swings. Central
bank buying at 755+ tonnes annually and industrial silver demand (680 million
ounces) provide structural support, but bears could push prices lower if $4,600
gold and $70 silver break.