The RBNZ held the OCR at 2.25% — expected — but the tone was the market mover. Governor Breman’s updated forecast track pushed the first potential hike to late 2026/early 2027, well short of the near-two-hikes-by-year-end that markets had priced in. The Kiwi sold off sharply across the board. For AUD/NZD, the setup is constructive: the RBA has unanimously hiked 25bps and flagged more to come, creating a clear monetary policy divergence. AUD/NZD spiked through R1 (1.17800) and is now testing 1.1800+. This case study frames two realistic post-event scenarios with actionable trade management principles.
