Analyst Gary Black believes Netflix Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX) holds the upper hand in the escalating takeover battle for Warner Bros. Discovery (NASDAQ:WBD), arguing that the streaming giant’s stronger strategic synergies position it to ultimately prevail over rival bidder Paramount Skydance (NASDAQ:PSKY).
On Tuesday, Black wrote on X that he expects Netflix to “emerge as victor” in the contest. However, he added that even in a scenario where Paramount succeeds in clinching the deal, Netflix shares could rebound toward the $100, a level last seen on December 5. On the same day, Netflix agreed to acquire the Warner Bros. studio assets and HBO Max from Warner Bros. Discovery for $27.75 per share, contingent on the company’s planned spin-off of its cable networks.
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$WBD has agreed to reopen takeover talks with $PSKY in a potential deal, and has given PSKY a 7-day window to present its best and final offer. Separately $WBD set March 20 as the date of its Special Meeting at which WBD shareholders would vote for NFLX ‘s proposed $27.75 all… pic.twitter.com/JXoE9MztOg
This news follows Warner Bros.’ rejection of Paramount’s latest hostile takeover bid on Tuesday, giving the company until February 23 to submit its “best and final offer.” Paramount had informally floated a higher offer of $31 per share, a move that appeared to appeal to the Warner Bros. board.
This offer can be matched by Netflix under the terms of the merger agreement, Warner Bros. stated.
Netflix’s stock has been under pressure amid this high-stakes bidding war, hitting a new 52-week low of $75.23 on February 12. Selling pressure intensified after activist investor Ancora Holdings revealed a $200 million stake in WBD and said it would oppose Netflix’s $82.7 billion takeover bid in favor of Paramount’s competing $30-per-share offer.
Investor sentiment was further dampened by regulatory concerns, with the Justice Department reportedly probing potential anticompetitive practices and issuing a civil subpoena to examine whether Netflix engaged in exclusionary conduct to maintain monopoly power.
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