The onshore yuan hit a 2½-year high as USD/CNY fell below 6.90, with the PBOC signalling greater tolerance for strength.
Summary:
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USD/CNY falls to 6.8954, lowest in 2½ years (since May 2023, so a bit longer)
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Onshore yuan (CNY) hits fresh multi-year high
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Shanghai Composite rises 0.8% on market reopen
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PBOC sets firmer fix at 6.9414 with reduced damping
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Narrower deviation from forecasts signals policy tolerance
China’s onshore yuan climbed to a fresh 2½-year high on Tuesday, with USD/CNY dropping to 6.8954 despite a slightly firmer official midpoint fix, underscoring growing momentum behind the currency’s appreciation trend.
The move marks the strongest level for the onshore yuan (CNY) since mid-2023 and comes as China’s financial markets reopened after an extended holiday break. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.8%, reflecting a broader risk-on tone that may be helping the yuan outperform regional peers.
The daily midpoint set by the People’s Bank of China came in at 6.9414, marginally firmer than the previous 6.9398. Notably, traders observed that authorities appeared to apply less “damping” in the fixing mechanism. The deviation between market forecasts and the official fix narrowed to around +250 pips from +350 previously, suggesting the central bank is allowing greater alignment with market pricing.
The yuan is managed within a 2% trading band on either side of the daily midpoint. By setting a stronger reference rate and reducing the gap between model estimates and the official fix, the PBOC may be signalling increased tolerance for gradual currency appreciation.
A firmer yuan reflects both domestic and external dynamics. Improved sentiment in Chinese equities, a softer U.S. dollar backdrop and renewed capital inflow expectations have contributed to the currency’s advance. The reopening of mainland markets also released pent-up positioning flows, amplifying the move.
The break below the psychologically important 6.90 level could attract additional momentum-driven flows, particularly if the risk-positive tone in Chinese equities persists. However, policymakers will likely remain attentive to export competitiveness considerations, especially as global demand conditions remain mixed.
For now, the 2½-year high underscores a shift in yuan dynamics, with the currency increasingly supported by market forces and a central bank appearing less inclined to lean aggressively against appreciation.
