It is hard to escape the similarities between the modern market and the wagering structure of the sport of horse racing. So, with the recent completion of the Saudi Cup, a race with $20 million in prize money that dwarfs the rest, I decided it was not too soon to play the horse-race card again.
After all, media outlets everywhere are promoting the fact that capital is beginning to migrate from stretched U.S. valuations toward emerging markets. Those smaller markets now drive a majority of global growth in real terms. And even if they didn’t, the market mindset tends to at least temporarily play the “catch up” game. Like a racehorse down the stretch, jockey aboard, trying to time their way to the finish line without running out of gas.
I have followed single-country funds since they were only in mutual fund form, before exchange-traded funds (ETFs) even existed. But now, decades later, I find that several specific country ETFs are making headlines. In some cases, it is due to their sudden bursts of speed. In other situations, it is structural shifts at the domestic level that are driving the investor interest.
So, with that as a proposition, and with the stock market’s reputation as a “casino with better lighting,” let’s try to handicap the sprint from here to mid-year among some of the more interesting single-country ETFs. By “interesting,” I mean technically. That is, their chart patterns strike me as either encouraging or very discouraging, not stuck in the middle of the pack.
Presented in parentheses are each ETF’s odds of being the best performer in the group by the end of June.
It has become the preferred tool for Latin American exposure, with the Brazil Ishares MSCI ETF (EWZ) posting its strongest inflows in over a decade last month. Billionaire Stanley Druckenmiller’s family office was recently noted for adding to the position, just before a 17% jump in January.
For Turkey, we’re looking at the Turkey Ishares MSCI ETF (TUR). After years of hyperinflation, Turkey is watching a potential “normalization” play. The Finance Minister expects annual inflation to drop toward 20% by late February 2026. The Central Bank is slowing its rate-cutting pace to ensure this recovery is permanent, attracting foreign carry trade inflows into the lira.
