We came across a bullish thesis on Vistra Corp. on r/Valueinvesting by Vig_Newtons. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on VST. Vistra Corp.’s share was trading at $171.49 as of February 16th. VST’s trailing and forward P/E were 61.69 and 17.92 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.
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Vistra Corp. (VST) has emerged as a differentiated player within the utility landscape, particularly when compared to larger XLU constituents such as NextEra Energy and Constellation Energy. While most regulated utilities rely on modest 2–3% rate increases approved by regulators, Vistra has built a contract-driven moat by bypassing traditional regulatory channels and securing long-term power purchase agreements directly with hyperscalers.
Notably, the company signed a 20-year PPA with Meta Platforms for 2,609 MW of carbon-free power, along with an additional 1,200 MW agreement tied to its Comanche Peak facility. This strategy grants Vistra tangible pricing power and direct exposure to the accelerating demand for clean energy from data centers and AI infrastructure.
However, this growth orientation comes with elevated financial risk. Vistra carries approximately $15.8 billion in total debt, translating to a 2.8x debt-to-equity ratio and a non-investment-grade profile. Refinancing risk remains a concern, particularly in a higher-rate environment where borrowing costs could rise meaningfully. Liquidity also appears tight, with a current ratio of 0.96 following a $3.1 billion cash outlay related to the Energy Harbor acquisition, leaving limited room for operational missteps.
Despite these balance sheet pressures, management has demonstrated strong conviction by repurchasing 29% of shares outstanding since 2021 and maintaining $1.9 billion in remaining authorization. Unlike peers that frequently issue equity to fund expansion, Vistra is aggressively returning capital while positioning itself to benefit from long-term energy demand growth. Overall, Vistra represents a higher-risk, higher-reward play with structural momentum tied to the energy and AI-driven power boom.
Previously, we covered a bullish thesis on Vistra Corp. (VST) by desperate-pleasures in March 2025, which highlighted the company’s AI-driven power demand opportunity, nuclear and battery scale, strong cash flows, and shareholder buybacks. VST’s stock price has appreciated by approximately 35.16% since our coverage. Vig_Newtons shares a similar view but emphasizes on Vistra’s contract moat via hyperscaler PPAs, pricing power, and leverage risks.
